Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:50% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:27% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:60% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:49% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:38% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.1% | 87.8% |
| 6-2 | 12.2% | 24.6% |
| 5-3 | 24.2% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.4% (+0.2%) | 6.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.1%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.1%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.9% (-0.3%) | 6.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.0%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.0%) | 6.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.1%) | 6.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.1%) | 6.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.1%) | 6.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.0%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.4% (+0.2%) | 6.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.4% (+0.2%) | 6.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.1%) | 6.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.1%) | 6.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.1%) | 6.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.0%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
94.1%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
93.3%
<0.1%
90.0%
<0.1%
89.9%
<0.1%
87.5%
<0.1%
86.7%
<0.1%
85.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
60.8%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.1%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.4%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%19.2%
0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
40.8%
5.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%85.9%
0.1%84.8%
0.2%84.7%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.1%
0.3%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%29.2%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%25.3%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.6%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.2%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
0.2%17.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
0.4%17.2%
<0.1%16.8%
0.2%16.4%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
27.3%
6.6%100.0%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%85.2%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.2%
0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.1%
0.2%30.6%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.6%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%23.2%
0.2%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%20.3%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.5%
0.4%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
0.1%18.8%
0.2%17.8%
0.2%17.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
0.2%15.9%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.9%
0.4%15.7%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%14.4%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02