Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:58% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:61% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:82% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:95% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:32% | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:54% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:36% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 12.7% | 89.5% |
| 6-2 | 27.7% | 29.8% |
| 5-3 | 31.3% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 18.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.8% (-0.2%) | 22.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.4% (+0.4%) | 21.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.1% (+0.1%) | 22.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.7% (-0.3%) | 22.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.0% (-0.0%) | 22.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.9% (+0.9%) | 22.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 23.3% (+1.3%) | 22.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.4% (-0.6%) | 22.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.0% (-0.0%) | 22.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.9% (-0.2%) | 22.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.9% (-0.1%) | 22.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.5%) | 21.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.4% (+0.4%) | 21.9% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
93.4%
3.3%
100.0%
0.8%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.0%
<0.1%
97.0%
0.2%
95.2%
<0.1%
94.3%
0.2%
93.0%
0.3%
90.5%
<0.1%
89.5%
0.7%
83.5%
0.6%Any 2 losses
65.4%
11.6%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.5%
0.2%95.8%
0.2%95.3%
0.5%95.3%
0.4%95.2%
0.1%95.1%
<0.1%93.2%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%89.9%
0.5%88.5%
0.2%87.7%
1.5%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
0.7%86.4%
<0.1%84.2%
0.4%83.6%
<0.1%83.5%
1.2%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%46.2%
0.2%43.0%
0.2%38.0%
0.3%37.8%
<0.1%37.3%
0.1%36.5%
<0.1%36.0%
0.4%33.8%
<0.1%33.1%
0.3%28.8%
0.1%28.4%
0.4%26.7%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%18.6%
0.4%17.1%
1.0%15.9%
0.6%Any 3 losses
40.2%
19.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.9%
0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.5%
0.3%95.7%
<0.1%94.9%
0.4%93.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%89.9%
1.1%89.8%
0.2%88.5%
<0.1%88.3%
0.5%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
0.8%86.7%
<0.1%84.4%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.6%
0.3%59.8%
0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.0%
0.2%43.7%
0.3%43.4%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%40.2%
0.1%38.8%
0.2%38.5%
<0.1%38.3%
0.6%38.2%
0.1%38.0%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.4%
0.9%37.2%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.3%
0.4%36.3%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%34.4%
0.2%34.0%
<0.1%33.8%
0.3%33.6%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
0.2%32.9%
0.6%32.7%
<0.1%32.5%
0.3%32.2%
0.8%32.1%
<0.1%32.0%
0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.8%
0.1%25.5%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%19.3%
1.2%19.3%
0.1%18.9%
0.4%17.9%
0.8%17.7%
0.3%17.5%
2.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
1.0%14.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.6%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02