Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:48% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:51% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:77% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:81% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.9% | 92.0% |
| 6-2 | 24.1% | 30.4% |
| 5-3 | 31.9% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 22.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.7% (-0.2%) | 17.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.7% (-0.2%) | 17.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.9% (-0.1%) | 17.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 17.5% (+0.6%) | 16.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 17.0% (+0.0%) | 17.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.3% (-0.6%) | 17.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.5% (-0.4%) | 17.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.1% (+0.1%) | 17.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.9% (-0.1%) | 17.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 16.9% (-0.0%) | 17.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.0% (+0.1%) | 16.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 18.1% (+1.1%) | 16.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 17.1% (+0.1%) | 16.9% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
93.7%
2.5%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.0%
<0.1%
97.0%
0.2%
96.3%
<0.1%
93.2%
<0.1%
90.8%
0.3%
90.1%
0.7%
89.7%
0.5%Any 2 losses
59.0%
10.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.2%
0.2%97.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.1%
0.7%92.1%
<0.1%91.6%
0.6%91.4%
<0.1%90.9%
0.7%89.4%
<0.1%88.9%
0.4%88.1%
0.3%87.8%
0.5%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.1%
0.3%42.9%
0.1%41.3%
0.2%40.0%
0.1%39.6%
0.1%39.5%
0.4%38.0%
<0.1%37.3%
0.2%36.5%
<0.1%35.1%
0.2%35.1%
<0.1%34.4%
0.1%32.4%
0.2%32.0%
0.1%23.3%
0.6%20.8%
1.3%15.1%
0.8%Any 3 losses
35.7%
16.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.3%
0.2%95.1%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%92.1%
0.7%91.4%
0.5%90.6%
<0.1%89.1%
0.4%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%46.7%
0.2%46.0%
<0.1%45.8%
0.1%45.6%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
0.1%44.2%
0.3%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
0.1%43.3%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.1%
0.1%42.0%
0.2%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.6%
0.2%40.1%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.2%
0.1%39.0%
0.4%38.9%
<0.1%38.8%
0.2%38.7%
0.4%38.4%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.4%
0.1%37.1%
0.3%36.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%35.0%
0.3%34.4%
0.2%34.1%
<0.1%33.2%
0.2%32.8%
<0.1%31.3%
0.1%31.2%
0.2%27.8%
0.7%27.3%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.3%
0.6%23.1%
<0.1%23.0%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.9%
1.2%20.0%
1.5%14.9%
0.9%14.4%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.4%
0.8%13.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02