Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W20-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:88% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:25% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:3% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 70.0% |
| 7-2 | 1.1% | 11.3% |
| 6-3 | 5.8% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 16.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.2%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.2%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
72.2%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
12.7%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.4%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
8.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02