WKU

Western KentuckyHilltoppers

2-0 1st (1-0) in CUSA

Data from 2025-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

22.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

WKUSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
08/23
vsSam Houston StSHSU
W41-24
18/30
vsNorth AlabamaUNA
W55-6
29/06
@ToledoTOL
Win prob:42%
49/20
vsNevadaNEV
Win prob:78%
59/27
@Missouri StMOST
Win prob:58%
610/03
@DelawareDEL
Win prob:35%
710/14
vsFlorida IntlFIU
Win prob:68%
810/21
@Louisiana TechLT
Win prob:49%
1011/01
vsNew Mexico StNMSU
Win prob:81%
1211/15
vsMTSUMTSU
Win prob:83%
1311/22
@LSULSU
Win prob:12%
1411/29
@Jacksonville StJXST
Win prob:20%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

WKURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.9%
100.0%
7-1
7.5%
97.2%
6-2
23.4%
53.5%
5-3
33.2%
5.1%
4-4
24.1%
0.0%
3-5
9.1%
0%
2-6
1.7%
0%
1-7
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely WKU CCG Opponents

if WKU makes the CCG

Jacksonville StateJacksonville St
63.8%
LibertyLiberty
17.5%
DelawareDelaware
11.3%
Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech
4.7%
Missouri StateMissouri St
2.8%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

WKUThis Week's Impact

Game
WKUCCG OddsAway
WKUCCG OddsHome
KennesawKENN@IndianaIU
23.1%
(+0.7%)		22.4%
(-0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@Penn StPSU
22.9%
(+0.5%)		22.4%
(-0.0%)
Sam Houston StSHSU@HawaiiHAW
22.5%
(+0.1%)		22.3%
(-0.2%)
Louisiana TechLT@LSULSU
21.8%
(-0.7%)		22.5%
(+0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@New Mexico StNMSU
22.4%
(-0.0%)		22.4%
(+0.0%)
DelawareDEL@ColoradoCOLO
22.5%
(+0.1%)		22.4%
(-0.0%)
Missouri StMOST@MarshallMRSH
22.6%
(+0.1%)		22.4%
(-0.0%)
UT MartinUTM@UTEPUTEP
22.3%
(-0.2%)		22.4%
(+0.0%)
WKUWKU@ToledoTOL
22.2%
(-0.2%)		22.6%
(+0.1%)
LibertyLIB@Jacksonville StJXST
21.1%
(-1.3%)		22.9%
(+0.4%)
MTSUMTSU@WisconsinWIS
22.6%
(+0.2%)		22.4%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

WKULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
WKU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
98.2%
0.6%
LSU
100.0%
0.3%
Toledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Nevada
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Delaware
98.4%
<0.1%
Jacksonville St
92.5%
0.1%
Any 2 losses
86.9%
4.1%
LSUNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUToledo
100.0%
0.3%
LSUMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareToledo
100.0%
0.1%
MTSUToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSU
99.3%
0.1%
LSULouisiana Tech
99.2%
0.3%
LSUMissouri St
98.8%
0.2%
LSUNew Mexico St
98.4%
<0.1%
DelawareLSU
98.0%
0.5%
Jacksonville StToledo
96.3%
0.2%
Jacksonville StLSU
95.2%
1.0%
Jacksonville StNevada
82.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico St
80.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechNew Mexico St
80.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouri St
78.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLouisiana Tech
68.8%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida Intl
66.7%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri St
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico St
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSU
63.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSU
63.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMissouri St
60.0%
<0.1%
DelawareMissouri St
59.6%
<0.1%
DelawareLouisiana Tech
59.1%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMissouri St
59.0%
0.1%
Louisiana TechMTSU
57.1%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico St
54.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville St
53.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana Tech
47.0%
0.1%
DelawareJacksonville St
40.5%
0.3%
Any 3 losses
61.6%
13.3%
LSUNevadaToledo
100.0%
0.1%
DelawareNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUMTSUToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUMissouri StNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUNew Mexico StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUNevadaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMTSUNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUMTSUNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
NevadaNew Mexico StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSUToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNevadaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNevadaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUMissouri StToledo
99.6%
0.3%
Florida IntlLSUToledo
99.4%
0.2%
LSULouisiana TechToledo
98.0%
0.4%
DelawareLSUToledo
97.8%
0.7%
DelawareLSUNevada
97.7%
0.1%
LSULouisiana TechNevada
97.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSUToledo
95.9%
1.3%
Jacksonville StLSUNevada
95.6%
0.3%
Jacksonville StNevadaToledo
93.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMTSUToledo
90.9%
<0.1%
LSUMTSUNew Mexico St
90.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSUNevada
88.9%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechNew Mexico StToledo
85.7%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSUToledo
85.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUNew Mexico St
85.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUMTSU
81.3%
<0.1%
LSUMTSUMissouri St
80.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechNevada
80.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri StToledo
80.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSUToledo
76.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUMissouri St
75.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouri StNevada
75.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlToledo
72.9%
<0.1%
LSUMissouri StNew Mexico St
71.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUMTSU
70.5%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMTSU
69.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StToledo
67.9%
0.1%
Missouri StNew Mexico StToledo
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSUNevada
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUNew Mexico St
66.3%
<0.1%
DelawareMissouri StToledo
66.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSULouisiana Tech
66.1%
0.1%
DelawareMissouri StNevada
64.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSUMTSU
63.7%
0.2%
DelawareFlorida IntlNevada
63.6%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMissouri St
62.4%
0.2%
Jacksonville StLSUNew Mexico St
61.3%
0.2%
DelawareFlorida IntlLSU
60.6%
0.2%
Louisiana TechMissouri StToledo
60.5%
<0.1%
DelawareNew Mexico StToledo
60.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechToledo
60.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLSULouisiana Tech
59.8%
0.5%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLSU
59.6%
0.5%
DelawareLouisiana TechToledo
58.9%
0.1%
DelawareLSUMissouri St
58.6%
0.4%
Florida IntlMissouri StToledo
57.9%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechNew Mexico St
56.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechNevada
56.1%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNew Mexico StToledo
55.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMissouri StNevada
55.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNevadaNew Mexico St
53.8%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSUMissouri St
53.5%
0.7%
Jacksonville StMissouri StToledo
52.9%
0.1%
Jacksonville StLSULouisiana Tech
52.6%
1.1%
Florida IntlNew Mexico StToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechNevadaNew Mexico St
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMissouri StNevada
50.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechToledo
48.4%
0.2%
DelawareLouisiana TechNevada
47.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNevada
47.1%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StNevada
44.4%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLSU
40.5%
2.0%
DelawareJacksonville StToledo
38.0%
0.4%
DelawareNevadaNew Mexico St
37.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechNew Mexico St
25.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouri StNew Mexico St
25.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri StNew Mexico St
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNew Mexico St
21.4%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSUNew Mexico St
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMTSU
15.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlMTSU
14.3%
<0.1%
DelawareMissouri StNew Mexico St
12.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMissouri StNew Mexico St
11.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechMTSU
8.1%
<0.1%
DelawareLouisiana TechNew Mexico St
6.7%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSUMissouri St
6.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLouisiana Tech
6.1%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StMTSU
5.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLouisiana Tech
5.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechMissouri St
5.2%
0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSUMissouri St
5.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlMissouri St
4.8%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLouisiana Tech
4.5%
0.3%
DelawareJacksonville StMissouri St
4.4%
0.2%
DelawareLouisiana TechMissouri St
3.9%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlJacksonville St
2.9%
0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMissouri St
2.2%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StNew Mexico St
1.5%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
31.7%
23.9%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechMTSUNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUMTSUNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUNevadaNew Mexico StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUNevadaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMTSUNevada
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUMTSUNevadaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMTSUNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMissouri StNevadaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMTSUNew Mexico StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
LSUMissouri StNevadaToledo
98.6%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUNevadaToledo
98.4%
0.2%
Jacksonville StLSUNevadaToledo
95.4%
0.4%
LSUMissouri StNevadaNew Mexico St
88.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUMTSUNevada
87.5%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlNevadaToledo
84.2%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechNevadaNew Mexico StToledo
83.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUNew Mexico StToledo
81.6%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSUNevadaToledo
80.0%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMTSUNevada
78.3%
<0.1%
LSUMissouri StNew Mexico StToledo
77.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUMTSUToledo
77.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSUMTSUNevada
75.4%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSUNevadaToledo
75.0%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMTSUToledo
73.6%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUMTSUToledo
72.9%
0.1%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechNevadaToledo
71.4%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechNevadaNew Mexico St
70.6%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUNew Mexico StToledo
70.4%
0.1%
Florida IntlLSUMissouri StNevada
69.6%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMissouri StToledo
69.5%
0.3%
LSUMTSUMissouri StToledo
69.1%
<0.1%
LSUMTSUNew Mexico StToledo
68.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSULouisiana TechToledo
68.4%
0.2%
LSULouisiana TechNew Mexico StToledo
67.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechNew Mexico StToledo
66.7%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUMissouri StNevada
65.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSULouisiana TechNevada
65.8%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMissouri StNevadaToledo
64.7%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUMissouri StToledo
64.5%
0.5%
DelawareFlorida IntlLSUNevada
64.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StNevadaNew Mexico StToledo
64.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSUMTSUToledo
63.8%
0.3%
LSUMTSUMissouri StNevada
63.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLSUToledo
63.3%
0.3%
Florida IntlLSUMissouri StToledo
63.0%
0.1%
DelawareLSUNevadaNew Mexico St
61.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSUNew Mexico StToledo
60.9%
0.3%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNevadaToledo
60.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLSUNevada
60.4%
0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMissouri StNevada
60.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNevadaNew Mexico StToledo
60.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUMTSUNevada
58.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouri StNevadaToledo
58.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLSUToledo
56.3%
0.7%
Jacksonville StLSUMissouri StToledo
56.1%
1.0%
DelawareLSULouisiana TechToledo
56.0%
0.7%
Jacksonville StLSUMissouri StNevada
56.0%
0.2%
Jacksonville StLSUNevadaNew Mexico St
55.4%
<0.1%
DelawareLSULouisiana TechNevada
52.4%
0.1%
DelawareLouisiana TechNevadaToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMissouri StNevadaToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNevadaNew Mexico StToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSULouisiana TechToledo
49.9%
1.5%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechNevadaToledo
47.9%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSULouisiana TechNevada
45.5%
0.3%
DelawareJacksonville StLSUToledo
41.5%
2.7%
DelawareMissouri StNevadaToledo
40.0%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StNevadaToledo
39.1%
0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLSUNevada
38.6%
0.6%
Louisiana TechMTSUMissouri StToledo
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareMTSUNew Mexico StToledo
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechNevadaNew Mexico St
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlMissouri StNevadaNew Mexico St
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechMTSUToledo
25.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouri StNew Mexico StToledo
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMTSUToledo
23.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSULouisiana TechNew Mexico St
20.8%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlMissouri StNevada
20.0%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMTSUMissouri St
17.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNevadaNew Mexico St
16.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechMTSUNevada
14.3%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUMTSUNew Mexico St
13.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSUMTSUMissouri St
12.7%
0.2%
DelawareMissouri StNew Mexico StToledo
12.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUMTSUMissouri St
12.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSUMissouri StNew Mexico St
12.5%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlNew Mexico StToledo
12.5%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMTSUNew Mexico St
11.1%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUMTSUMissouri St
11.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLSUNew Mexico St
10.7%
0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLSUNew Mexico St
10.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMissouri StNew Mexico StToledo
10.5%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechMissouri StNevada
9.1%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSUMissouri StNevada
9.1%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlMTSUToledo
8.3%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSUMissouri StNew Mexico St
8.2%
0.2%
DelawareJacksonville StNew Mexico StToledo
8.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlLSULouisiana TechMissouri St
7.9%
0.1%
Jacksonville StMTSUMissouri StToledo
7.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSULouisiana TechMTSU
7.6%
0.2%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMissouri StToledo
7.0%
<0.1%
DelawareLouisiana TechMissouri StNevada
6.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechMTSUToledo
6.5%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLSUNew Mexico St
6.5%
0.4%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechMissouri StToledo
6.3%
0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlJacksonville StToledo
6.0%
0.2%
DelawareFlorida IntlLSUMissouri St
5.9%
0.2%
DelawareMTSUMissouri StToledo
5.9%
<0.1%
LSULouisiana TechMissouri StNew Mexico St
5.8%
<0.1%
DelawareLSULouisiana TechMTSU
5.7%
0.1%
Jacksonville StLSULouisiana TechMissouri St
5.6%
0.8%
Florida IntlLouisiana TechMissouri StToledo
5.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StNew Mexico StToledo
5.6%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLouisiana TechNew Mexico StToledo
5.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StMissouri StNevada
5.3%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLouisiana TechNevada
5.2%
<0.1%
DelawareLSUMissouri StNew Mexico St
5.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLSUMTSU
4.9%
0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLouisiana TechToledo
4.9%
0.4%
DelawareJacksonville StMTSUToledo
4.9%
<0.1%
DelawareLSULouisiana TechMissouri St
4.7%
0.4%
DelawareJacksonville StLSUMTSU
4.6%
0.4%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLSUMissouri St
4.5%
0.4%
Jacksonville StLSUMTSUNew Mexico St
4.5%
<0.1%
DelawareLSULouisiana TechNew Mexico St
4.4%
0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLSULouisiana Tech
4.4%
0.3%
DelawareJacksonville StMissouri StNevada
4.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLSULouisiana Tech
4.3%
0.5%
Florida IntlJacksonville StLouisiana TechToledo
4.2%
<0.1%
DelawareJacksonville StLSUMissouri St
4.0%
1.4%
DelawareLouisiana TechMissouri StToledo
3.8%
<0.1%
DelawareLouisiana TechNew Mexico StToledo
3.7%
<0.1%
Jacksonville StLSULouisiana TechNew Mexico St
3.7%
0.2%
DelawareJacksonville StLSULouisiana Tech
3.4%
2.0%
DelawareFlorida IntlMissouri StToledo
2.9%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlJacksonville StLSU
2.8%
0.9%
DelawareJacksonville StMissouri StToledo
2.2%
0.3%
DelawareFlorida IntlLouisiana TechToledo
2.2%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida IntlLSUMTSU
2.1%
<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

WKUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com