Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L0-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:12% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:31% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:18% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:55% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:24% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:21% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.5% | 90.3% |
| 6-2 | 4.1% | 24.3% |
| 5-3 | 14.9% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 29.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.8% (+0.3%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.2%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.1%) | 1.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.1%) | 1.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.2%) | 1.6% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
63.9%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
34.1%
1.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.7%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.5%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.9%
0.1%17.4%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02