Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:83% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:42% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:26% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:41% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:41% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:2% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:22% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.8% | 91.7% |
| 6-2 | 4.5% | 30.9% |
| 5-3 | 13.9% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 19.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3% (+0.2%) | 2.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.2%) | 2.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.2%) | 2.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.1%) | 2.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.0%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.1%) | 2.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
88.8%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%
85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%
85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
42.6%
1.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.9%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%25.3%
0.2%24.8%
0.1%22.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.5%
0.2%16.3%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
23.7%
3.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%34.6%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
0.1%29.5%
0.1%27.1%
0.1%26.3%
0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.7%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%15.6%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02