Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 51.4% | |
| T1 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-0 | 1-0 | 50.3% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 0-0 | 0-1 | 23.5% | |
| T1 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-0 | 1-0 | 22.8% | |
| T1 |  TroyTROY | 0-0 | 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| T1 |  Old DominionODU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 11.1% | |
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 0-0 | 0-1 | 10.8% | |
| T1 |  App StateAPP | 0-0 | 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| T1 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3.1% | |
| T1 |  Arkansas StateARST | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2.4% | |
| T1 |  UL MonroeULM | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0.9% | |
| T1 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.7% | |
| T1 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-0 | 0-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 51.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 52.6% (+1.1%) | 51.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 51.4% (+0.0%) | 51.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 51.5% (+0.1%) | 51.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 52.1% (+0.7%) | 51.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 51.8% (+0.4%) | 51.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 51.3% (-0.1%) | 51.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 51.9% (+0.5%) | 51.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 51.4% (-0.0%) | 51.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 51.4% (-0.0%) | 51.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 51.5% (+0.1%) | 51.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 51.8% (+0.4%) | 51.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 51.5% (+0.1%) | 51.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 50.2% (-1.2%) | 51.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 52.2% (+0.8%) | 51.3% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 81.7% | 54.3% | 22.4% | 4.6% | - | 51.4% |
| Texas StateTXST | 100% | 81.0% | 54.2% | 25.7% | 4.4% | <0.1% | 50.3% |
| MarshallMRSH | 100% | 75.5% | 45.8% | 19.3% | 3.2% | <0.1% | 23.5% |
| South AlabamaUSA | 100% | 52.4% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% | - | 22.8% |
| TroyTROY | 100% | 58.5% | 24.5% | 4.7% | 0.6% | - | 12.7% |
| Old DominionODU | 100% | 59.2% | 21.8% | 5.7% | 0.8% | - | 11.1% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 74.8% | 44.6% | 15.7% | 1.8% | - | 10.8% |
| App StateAPP | 100% | 55.0% | 13.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% | - | 9.7% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | 100% | 58.0% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 0.2% | - | 3.1% |
| Arkansas StateARST | 100% | 64.8% | 30.3% | 7.5% | 1.1% | - | 2.4% |
| UL MonroeULM | 100% | 64.6% | 23.3% | 5.7% | 0.9% | - | 0.9% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | 100% | 74.4% | 38.5% | 10.4% | 1.3% | - | 0.7% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | 50.0% | 39.5% | 16.1% | 3.6% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Southern MissUSM | - | 100% | - | 8.4% | 2.5% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(0-0) | 7.4% | 24.9% | 33.4% | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-0) | 7.1% | 23.6% | 32.2% | 24.0% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-0) | 5.6% | 22.8% | 34.5% | 25.1% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| App StateAPP(0-0) | 1.1% | 8.4% | 23.3% | 31.5% | 23.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| TroyTROY(0-0) | 1.0% | 7.9% | 22.2% | 31.0% | 24.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| MarshallMRSH(0-0) | 1.3% | 8.0% | 21.1% | 29.2% | 24.1% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Old DominionODU(0-0) | 0.9% | 6.7% | 20.1% | 30.4% | 25.6% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| LouisianaUL(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.3% | 10.3% | 23.8% | 30.7% | 22.8% | 8.4% | 1.4% | <0.1% | 4.1 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.7% | 8.9% | 23.3% | 31.8% | 23.6% | 9.0% | 1.6% | <0.1% | 4.0 |
| Arkansas StateARST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 11.4% | 25.0% | 30.8% | 21.4% | 7.2% | 0.8% | 3.2 |
| UL MonroeULM(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 6.4% | 18.1% | 29.8% | 28.0% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 2.7 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 11.4% | 26.1% | 33.6% | 20.9% | 4.7% | 2.3 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 16.1% | 30.8% | 32.5% | 14.5% | 1.7 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 7.0% | 22.7% | 40.2% | 28.8% | 1.1 |
Data from 2025-09-02