Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L12-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:21% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:71% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:50% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:91% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:40% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:30% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:35% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.3% | 74.8% |
| 6-2 | 10.3% | 44.6% |
| 5-3 | 23.8% | 15.7% |
| 4-4 | 30.7% | 1.8% |
| 3-5 | 22.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.2% (+0.4%) | 10.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.9% (+0.1%) | 10.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 10.8% (+0.0%) | 10.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.7% (-0.1%) | 10.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.1% (+0.3%) | 10.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.1%) | 10.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.4%) | 10.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.0%) | 10.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.7% (-0.1%) | 10.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.0%) | 10.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.5% (-0.3%) | 10.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.1% (+0.3%) | 10.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.0% (+0.2%) | 10.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.4% (+0.6%) | 10.8% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
83.8%
0.4%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
93.3%
<0.1%
68.3%
<0.1%
63.0%
<0.1%
31.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
65.3%
2.5%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.5%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%68.0%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
0.2%57.1%
0.2%56.7%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%29.9%
0.2%28.9%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.6%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
46.5%
7.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.8%
0.3%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
0.1%77.4%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.8%
0.5%72.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.1%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
0.2%62.1%
<0.1%61.9%
0.8%60.0%
<0.1%58.4%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.5%
0.2%28.6%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
0.7%26.1%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.4%
0.2%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.6%
0.1%2.2%
0.4%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02