Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:95% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:80% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:12% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:86% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:59% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.7% | 86.5% |
| 6-2 | 16.5% | 23.7% |
| 5-3 | 28.8% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5% (+0.1%) | 8.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.1%) | 8.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.0% (-0.4%) | 8.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.5% (+0.1%) | 8.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.5% (+0.1%) | 8.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.2% (-0.3%) | 8.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.7% (-0.7%) | 8.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.0% (+0.6%) | 8.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.7% (+0.2%) | 8.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.5% (+0.1%) | 8.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.5% (+0.0%) | 8.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.0% (-0.4%) | 8.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.5% (+0.1%) | 8.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 8.2% (-0.3%) | 10.7% (+2.2%) | |
| 8.6% (+0.2%) | 8.3% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
86.9%
3.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.8%
<0.1%
97.5%
0.2%
95.9%
0.3%
95.8%
0.2%
95.1%
0.2%
94.9%
<0.1%
91.2%
0.1%
81.0%
2.0%Any 2 losses
30.4%
12.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.7%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%82.6%
0.2%82.1%
<0.1%81.2%
0.6%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%43.0%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
0.2%40.2%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.8%
0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.4%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
0.2%30.3%
0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.7%
0.3%26.7%
0.1%26.7%
1.2%26.1%
0.2%25.3%
1.4%24.3%
0.3%20.8%
2.4%19.1%
1.3%16.3%
1.8%12.0%
0.8%Any 3 losses
14.7%
8.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%30.2%
0.3%30.0%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.7%
0.1%26.2%
0.4%25.8%
<0.1%25.3%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
0.6%21.9%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.6%
0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
0.3%17.9%
0.5%17.9%
0.2%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
0.1%16.1%
<0.1%14.8%
0.2%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.3%
0.6%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.3%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.9%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.8%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02