Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L10-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:83% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:61% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:83% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:54% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:40% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 16.6% | 94.8% |
| 6-2 | 29.6% | 42.0% |
| 5-3 | 28.1% | 1.4% |
| 4-4 | 15.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.9% (-0.4%) | 32.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.3% (+0.0%) | 32.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.7%) | 32.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.3% (-0.0%) | 32.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.5% (+0.2%) | 32.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.1%) | 32.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.0% (-0.3%) | 32.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.2% (-0.1%) | 32.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.3% (-0.0%) | 32.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.1%) | 32.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.5% (+0.2%) | 32.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.5% (+0.1%) | 32.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.1% (-0.2%) | 32.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.1% (-0.2%) | 32.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.1%) | 32.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.3% (-0.1%) | 32.3% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.0%Any 1 loss
96.6%
6.8%
100.0%
1.8%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.2%
98.8%
0.5%
98.6%
0.3%
97.6%
0.7%
97.3%
0.2%
97.1%
0.3%
96.6%
0.2%
93.1%
1.6%
91.1%
0.8%Any 2 losses
71.4%
17.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.5%98.5%
<0.1%98.5%
0.9%98.5%
0.1%98.5%
0.4%98.0%
0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.9%
1.1%96.9%
0.5%96.4%
<0.1%96.1%
0.4%95.7%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
0.3%92.0%
2.6%91.7%
0.1%91.6%
0.2%91.3%
0.2%90.9%
1.5%74.1%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%64.9%
0.2%63.9%
0.1%63.9%
0.2%63.6%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.7%
0.3%55.3%
0.1%55.0%
0.2%54.5%
0.1%52.1%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%48.7%
0.5%47.8%
0.1%43.9%
0.3%43.1%
0.2%41.7%
0.9%41.5%
0.4%40.8%
0.2%40.5%
0.4%40.4%
0.3%39.9%
0.5%39.4%
0.7%36.5%
0.2%32.3%
0.1%22.0%
1.3%Any 3 losses
37.6%
25.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.8%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.6%
0.2%97.0%
<0.1%96.6%
0.1%96.1%
<0.1%96.0%
0.1%94.2%
0.5%93.6%
0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.5%
0.3%90.1%
0.3%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
0.3%69.6%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.0%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
0.3%64.5%
0.1%64.1%
0.2%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
0.1%62.6%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.2%
0.1%61.2%
0.2%58.6%
0.5%58.4%
0.2%57.9%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
0.3%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.2%
0.2%52.2%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.3%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%46.8%
0.8%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.3%
<0.1%43.7%
0.4%43.5%
0.7%42.9%
0.5%42.4%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.7%
0.8%40.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.3%39.2%
1.6%39.1%
<0.1%38.6%
1.2%38.4%
0.5%38.4%
0.1%38.0%
0.9%37.3%
0.4%36.9%
0.3%36.5%
<0.1%36.3%
0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.2%
0.2%30.9%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%24.9%
0.3%19.6%
2.3%19.4%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%3.1%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.4%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.8%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.5%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02