Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
26.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:95% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:94% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:94% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:67% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:10% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:82% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:40% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 10.4% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 31.7% | 45.6% |
| 7-2 | 33.7% | 3.8% |
| 6-3 | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.8% (-0.4%) | 26.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 23.9% (-2.3%) | 26.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.1% (-0.1%) | 26.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.3% (+0.1%) | 26.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 25.8% (-0.4%) | 26.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.7% (+0.6%) | 26.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 26.2% (+0.1%) | 26.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 26.0% (-0.2%) | 26.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.2% (+0.1%) | 26.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 26.0% (-0.2%) | 26.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 26.1% (-0.1%) | 26.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.3% (+0.1%) | 26.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.7% (-0.5%) | 26.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.7% (+0.5%) | 26.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 26.0% (-0.1%) | 26.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.1% (-0.1%) | 26.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 25.7% (-0.4%) | 26.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.2% (+0.0%) | 26.2% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
1.0%Any 1 loss
86.1%
12.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.9%
8.9%
59.7%
<0.1%
57.1%
<0.1%
53.4%
<0.1%
52.9%
0.3%
52.8%
0.2%
51.4%
0.2%
51.1%
<0.1%
44.5%
1.6%
43.1%
0.5%Any 2 losses
42.0%
30.8%99.6%
0.5%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.9%
0.5%55.0%
0.5%54.3%
2.5%54.0%
1.9%53.0%
0.5%52.6%
2.7%51.8%
0.5%42.9%
<0.1%41.5%
13.6%40.4%
4.2%40.0%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.2%
0.5%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.4%1.2%
0.7%Any 3 losses
5.7%
30.1%100.0%
<0.1%61.4%
0.1%53.7%
0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.8%
0.1%43.0%
0.7%41.7%
<0.1%36.4%
0.2%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.3%
0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.6%
0.6%9.2%
0.5%9.1%
0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
0.8%5.4%
0.1%4.7%
0.9%4.6%
0.2%4.4%
1.3%4.2%
0.8%3.9%
0.3%3.9%
2.9%3.6%
0.8%3.5%
0.8%3.4%
3.9%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.3%
1.2%3.1%
0.8%3.0%
4.1%1.4%
6.6%Any 4 losses
4.7%
1.5%50.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.2%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.0%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02