American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-07

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

1NavyNAVY1-02-028.2%
T2TulaneTULN0-02-046.1%
T2MemphisMEM0-02-042.1%
T2ArmyARMY0-01-132.1%
T2South FloridaUSF0-02-025.0%
T2UT San AntonioUTSA0-00-215.1%
T2North TexasUNT0-02-04.8%
T2East CarolinaECU0-01-14.4%
T2RiceRICE0-01-11.1%
T2UABUAB0-11-10.5%
T2TempleTEM0-02-00.4%
T2FL AtlanticFAU0-01-10.1%
T2CharlotteCLT0-00-2<0.1%
T2TulsaTLSA0-01-1-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

114.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
29.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
38.8%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
48.5%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
57.2%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
66.7%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
76.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
85.7%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
94.4%
ArmyARMY
vs
USFSouth Florida
103.9%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
113.7%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
123.4%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
132.4%
ArmyARMY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
142.1%
South FloridaUSF
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
152.0%
NavyNAVY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 46.1%
Game
TulaneCCG OddsAway
TulaneCCG OddsHome
Incarnate WordUIW@UT San AntonioUTSA
45.3%
(-0.8%)		46.2%
(+0.1%)
Washington StWSU@North TexasUNT
46.3%
(+0.2%)		45.8%
(-0.3%)
NavyNAVY@TulsaTLSA
45.6%
(-0.5%)		52.8%
(+6.8%)
MonmouthMONM@CharlotteCLT
45.2%
(-0.8%)		46.2%
(+0.1%)
AkronAKR@UABUAB
45.7%
(-0.4%)		46.2%
(+0.2%)
South FloridaUSF@Miami FLMIA
45.8%
(-0.3%)		46.1%
(+0.1%)
MemphisMEM@TroyTROY
46.2%
(+0.1%)		46.0%
(-0.1%)
FL AtlanticFAU@Florida IntlFIU
45.4%
(-0.7%)		46.3%
(+0.2%)
DukeDUKE@TulaneTULN
45.9%
(-0.2%)		46.1%
(+0.1%)
OklahomaOU@TempleTEM
46.2%
(+0.1%)		45.4%
(-0.7%)
Prairie View A&MPV@RiceRICE
46.3%
(+0.2%)		46.1%
(-0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Coastal CarCCU
46.2%
(+0.1%)		45.9%
(-0.2%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-3Overall
TulaneTULN--100%-89.4%-19.6%-0.1%46.1%
MemphisMEM--100%-95.2%-34.4%-0.4%42.1%
ArmyARMY100%79.5%-34.1%-6.1%-<0.1%-32.1%
NavyNAVY100%82.5%-43.0%-6.9%-<0.1%-28.2%
South FloridaUSF--100%-89.7%-26.4%-0.3%25.0%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-94.0%-39.5%-0.6%15.1%
North TexasUNT--100%-89.4%-29.1%-0.2%4.8%
East CarolinaECU--100%-89.6%-17.0%-<0.1%4.4%
RiceRICE--100%-93.3%-28.1%-0.2%1.1%
UABUAB----95.2%-32.1%-0.4%0.5%
TempleTEM--100%-94.4%-33.6%-0.4%0.4%
FL AtlanticFAU--100%-100%-32.4%-0.4%0.1%
CharlotteCLT----100%-38.5%-1.4%<0.1%
TulsaTLSA----------

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(0-0)4.3%19.2%0.0%31.8%0.0%27.2%0.0%13.2%0.0%3.6%0.0%0.6%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.6
NavyNAVY(1-0)2.4%13.6%0.0%28.7%0.0%31.0%0.0%17.6%0.0%5.6%0.0%0.9%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-6.3
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%11.2%0.0%31.5%0.0%34.2%0.0%17.6%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.7%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%6.2
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%7.7%0.0%24.4%0.0%32.3%0.0%23.1%0.0%9.8%0.0%2.4%0.0%0.3%<0.1%0.0%5.9
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%3.1%0.0%15.5%0.0%29.9%0.0%29.8%0.0%16.0%0.0%4.9%0.0%0.8%<0.1%0.0%5.4
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%1.0%0.0%6.8%0.0%19.3%0.0%29.2%0.0%25.5%0.0%13.5%0.0%4.1%0.7%<0.1%4.7
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%0.2%0.0%2.5%0.0%11.5%0.0%26.1%0.0%32.2%0.0%20.2%0.0%6.4%0.9%<0.1%4.2
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%0.2%0.0%2.1%0.0%9.3%0.0%21.5%0.0%29.0%0.0%23.8%0.0%11.0%2.9%0.3%3.9
RiceRICE(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%2.6%0.0%11.1%0.0%24.8%0.0%31.2%0.0%21.3%7.5%1.0%3.2
UABUAB(0-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.9%0.0%20.2%0.0%31.9%0.0%27.0%11.1%1.7%2.8
TempleTEM(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%5.5%0.0%16.9%0.0%30.0%0.0%29.9%14.3%2.4%2.7
FL AtlanticFAU(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.5%0.0%11.1%0.0%27.6%0.0%35.4%20.2%3.0%2.3
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.0%0.0%19.4%0.0%33.3%29.7%10.4%1.8
TulsaTLSA(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%3.8%0.0%17.8%40.7%37.2%0.9

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com