Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W14-12 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-35 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/18 | Win prob:59% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:18% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:71% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:22% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:41% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:23% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:47% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.4% | 93.3% |
| 6-2 | 2.6% | 28.1% |
| 5-3 | 11.1% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 24.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 21.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
88.2%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
93.9%
<0.1%
89.5%
<0.1%
87.1%
<0.1%
85.4%
<0.1%
71.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
37.5%
1.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.6%
0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%12.0%
0.1%Any 3 losses
25.6%
1.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.6%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
0.2%24.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.2%14.4%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07