Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L27-30 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:81% | |
| 5 | 9/25 | Win prob:67% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:93% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 4.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 19.2% | 79.5% |
| 7-2 | 31.8% | 34.1% |
| 6-3 | 27.2% | 6.1% |
| 5-4 | 13.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 3.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.8% (+0.7%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.0% (-0.1%) | 32.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.4%) | 37.9% (+5.9%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.5%) | 32.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.2% (+0.1%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 31.8% (-0.3%) | 32.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.9% (-0.2%) | 32.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.4%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.1% (+0.1%) | 32.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.0% (-0.1%) | 32.6% (+0.5%) | |
| 32.6% (+0.5%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.3%) | 31.5% (-0.5%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.9%Any 1 loss
81.8%
13.9%
100.0%
2.0%
100.0%
1.4%
86.4%
0.8%
84.8%
0.3%
84.7%
1.5%
84.1%
<0.1%
83.4%
0.7%
83.1%
0.2%
82.7%
2.1%
66.8%
4.9%Any 2 losses
45.2%
27.5%100.0%
1.1%85.4%
0.2%85.0%
0.2%84.5%
0.5%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
0.4%83.0%
0.4%82.9%
1.0%82.8%
<0.1%82.7%
0.2%82.1%
0.4%81.7%
0.1%81.6%
0.8%80.9%
1.5%80.0%
1.1%67.8%
2.7%67.5%
3.3%36.7%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%26.8%
0.4%24.0%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%22.3%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%19.9%
0.2%19.1%
0.1%18.5%
0.5%17.3%
0.1%17.3%
0.2%17.0%
0.3%16.9%
<0.1%15.0%
1.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.7%
0.4%12.7%
0.5%12.3%
0.6%12.3%
1.3%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.0%
1.1%10.8%
2.3%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
3.7%Any 3 losses
23.6%
20.5%90.6%
0.1%86.0%
0.3%85.7%
0.1%83.3%
0.2%80.2%
0.5%80.1%
0.8%78.1%
<0.1%68.4%
1.8%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.0%
0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.9%
0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.4%
0.4%18.2%
0.2%18.1%
0.2%17.8%
0.1%17.7%
0.2%17.6%
0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.9%
0.1%16.7%
0.3%16.7%
<0.1%15.2%
0.1%15.1%
0.3%15.0%
0.1%13.6%
0.7%13.4%
0.3%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
0.4%13.0%
0.2%12.7%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.3%11.3%
0.2%11.2%
0.5%10.5%
0.7%10.5%
0.9%9.6%
1.6%9.3%
0.8%8.4%
1.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
1.9%7.9%
0.6%7.8%
2.6%3.2%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07