Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L11-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L3-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/18 | Win prob:41% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:10% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:7% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:49% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:18% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:1% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:6% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 38.5% |
| 5-3 | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 4-4 | 6.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 19.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 33.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 29.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 10.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07