UABBlazers

1-1 T2nd (0-1) in AAC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsAlabama StateALST	W52-42
2	9/06	@NavyNAVY	L24-38
3	9/13	vsAkronAKR	Win prob:69%
4	9/20	@TennesseeTENN	Win prob:4%
6	10/04	vsArmyARMY	Win prob:21%
7	10/11	@Florida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:53%
8	10/18	vsMemphisMEM	Win prob:21%
10	11/01	@UConnCONN	Win prob:25%
11	11/08	@RiceRICE	Win prob:40%
12	11/15	vsNorth TexasUNT	Win prob:45%
13	11/22	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:26%
14	11/29	@TulsaTLSA	Win prob:78%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	0.1%	95.2%
6-2	1.1%	32.1%
5-3	6.9%	0.4%
4-4	20.2%	0%
3-5	31.9%	0%
2-6	27.0%	0%
1-7	11.1%	0%
0-8	1.7%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

28.6%

21.4%

21.4%

19.0%

9.5%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Incarnate WordUIW@UTSAUTSA	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
Washington StateWSU@North TexasUNT	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
NavyNAVY@TulsaTLSA	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.7% (+0.2%)
MonmouthMONM@CharlotteCLT	0.6% (+0.1%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
AkronAKR@UABUAB	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@MiamiMIA	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
MemphisMEM@TroyTROY	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@Florida InternationalFIU	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
DukeDUKE@TulaneTULN	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
OklahomaOU@TempleTEM	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.4% (-0.1%)
Prairie View A&MPV@RiceRICE	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Coastal CarolinaCCU	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

41.1%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.6%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

43.5%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.8%

<0.1%

23.3%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

21.1%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

33.4%

0.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

84.2%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

54.7%

<0.1%

51.1%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

32.0%

<0.1%

30.2%

0.1%

28.4%

0.2%

27.1%

0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.8%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com