Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W52-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:93% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:82% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:72% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:2% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 13.6% | 82.5% |
| 7-2 | 28.7% | 43.0% |
| 6-3 | 31.0% | 6.9% |
| 5-4 | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 28.4% (+0.3%) | 28.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 28.1% (-0.0%) | 28.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 29.6% (+1.4%) | 9.4% (-18.7%) | |
| 28.5% (+0.4%) | 28.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 28.2% (+0.1%) | 28.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 28.7% (+0.6%) | 28.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 28.2% (+0.0%) | 28.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 28.4% (+0.2%) | 28.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 28.6% (+0.5%) | 28.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 28.1% (-0.1%) | 28.8% (+0.7%) | |
| 27.8% (-0.3%) | 28.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 28.0% (-0.2%) | 28.5% (+0.3%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.3%
1.9%
100.0%
1.7%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
87.0%
<0.1%
82.7%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
60.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
82.3%
10.7%100.0%
2.5%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.9%
0.2%86.7%
0.4%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.4%
1.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
0.1%81.4%
0.5%77.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
1.3%74.1%
0.1%71.7%
3.3%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
48.6%
24.2%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.3%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.6%
0.2%84.8%
0.4%84.0%
0.5%83.3%
<0.1%82.7%
0.2%82.7%
0.3%82.0%
0.8%81.3%
1.6%78.3%
<0.1%75.3%
0.5%74.5%
1.9%72.2%
1.3%69.0%
4.7%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.6%
<0.1%21.2%
0.3%21.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.2%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
0.1%14.8%
0.4%14.6%
0.3%13.5%
0.4%12.9%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.7%11.8%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.5%
0.3%10.4%
0.8%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
1.0%9.2%
2.2%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.2%
2.5%2.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
21.7%
23.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%84.6%
0.2%84.3%
0.6%82.7%
<0.1%82.2%
0.3%80.8%
0.1%74.5%
0.8%70.5%
1.9%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.7%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.7%
0.2%22.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.9%
0.5%18.5%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.6%
0.2%14.4%
0.1%13.3%
0.3%13.1%
0.1%12.9%
0.6%12.2%
0.3%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
0.3%11.7%
0.6%10.8%
0.4%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.4%
1.5%10.4%
1.3%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
0.4%10.0%
0.9%9.9%
1.1%8.8%
0.4%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
3.0%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
1.1%5.6%
3.8%5.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07