Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W21-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L14-62 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:12% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:5% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:2% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:6% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:9% | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:25% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:16% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:25% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:5% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.0% | 42.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| 4-4 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 29.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 37.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 18.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Illinois
Kentucky
Ball State
UAB
Liberty
Morgan StateKent State
Ohio
IowaCCG: 4.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MichiganKent StateIowaCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 11.2%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07