Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:61% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:82% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:95% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:32% | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:54% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:36% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 12.9% | 89.3% |
| 6-2 | 28.0% | 29.8% |
| 5-3 | 30.9% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 18.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.3% (+0.1%) | 22.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.3%) | 22.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.2% (-0.0%) | 22.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.6% (+0.3%) | 22.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.9% (-0.3%) | 22.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.0% (-0.2%) | 22.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 22.3% (+0.1%) | 22.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.8% (-0.4%) | 25.5% (+3.2%) | |
| 22.4% (+0.1%) | 22.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.9% (-0.4%) | 22.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Morgan State
MassachusettsCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kent StateCCG: 25.5% • Scenario: 11.9%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.7%Any 1 loss
92.6%
5.2%
100.0%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%
97.7%
0.1%96.6%
0.3%
95.9%
0.4%
95.6%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%
90.3%
0.6%
88.4%
1.2%
84.3%
1.0%Any 2 losses
59.9%
16.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.0%
0.3%96.9%
0.2%95.5%
0.6%94.2%
0.9%90.6%
<0.1%88.2%
2.5%88.0%
1.2%87.5%
<0.1%84.6%
0.1%84.0%
2.1%83.6%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%53.8%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.3%
<0.1%41.9%
0.1%40.6%
0.2%39.0%
0.5%38.8%
0.3%36.6%
0.3%36.1%
0.1%34.5%
0.7%34.2%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.9%
0.5%31.9%
0.2%30.7%
0.6%18.3%
1.8%18.1%
1.0%18.0%
0.9%Any 3 losses
29.0%
21.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.8%
0.3%87.8%
0.1%84.0%
0.2%81.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%70.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
0.1%63.4%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.7%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.4%
0.5%42.5%
0.1%42.0%
0.3%40.8%
0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
1.1%38.7%
0.3%38.3%
0.5%37.7%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%36.0%
0.7%35.1%
1.5%34.5%
0.5%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.2%
0.3%31.4%
1.0%31.2%
1.3%29.8%
0.1%29.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%19.1%
0.2%18.5%
1.6%18.1%
3.7%18.0%
2.1%10.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
0.3%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.5%0.6%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07