IllinoisFighting Illini

2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsWestern IllinoisWIU	W52-3
2	9/06	@DukeDUKE	W45-19
3	9/13	vsWestern MichiganWMU	Win prob:87%
4	9/20	@IndianaIU	Win prob:17%
5	9/27	vsUSCUSC	Win prob:23%
6	10/04	@PurduePUR	Win prob:79%
7	10/11	vsOhio StateOSU	Win prob:12%
9	10/25	@WashingtonWASH	Win prob:39%
10	11/01	vsRutgersRUTG	Win prob:65%
12	11/15	vsMarylandMD	Win prob:67%
13	11/22	@WisconsinWIS	Win prob:43%
14	11/29	vsNorthwesternNU	Win prob:79%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.0%	100.0%
8-1	0.4%	66.4%
7-2	3.2%	7.8%
6-3	12.5%	0.0%
5-4	25.7%	0%
4-5	29.8%	0%
3-6	19.6%	0%
2-7	7.3%	0%
1-8	1.3%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

48.1%

31.5%

7.4%

7.4%

5.6%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Central MichiganCMU@MichiganMICH	0.7% (+0.1%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@Penn StatePSU	0.8% (+0.2%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@UCLAUCLA	0.5% (-0.1%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@NebraskaNEB	0.6% (+0.1%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
Youngstown StateYSU@Michigan StateMSU	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@IllinoisILL	0.5% (-0.1%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
USCUSC@PurduePUR	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.6% (+0.1%)
Indiana StateINST@IndianaIU	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
MinnesotaMINN@CaliforniaCAL	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
WisconsinWIS@AlabamaALA	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
OhioOHIO@Ohio StateOSU	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
Norfolk StateNORF@RutgersRUTG	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
TowsonTOW@MarylandMD	0.6% (+0.1%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
OregonORE@NorthwesternNU	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.9% (+0.4%)
MassachusettsMASS@IowaIOWA	0.4% (-0.1%)	0.6% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

67.4%

0.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

84.0%

<0.1%

81.4%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

73.9%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

62.1%

<0.1%

56.8%

0.1%

Any 2 losses

8.4%

2.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

38.5%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.2%

<0.1%

17.8%

<0.1%

17.3%

0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.4%

0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

11.7%

0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.9%

<0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

9.0%

0.2%

7.4%

<0.1%

6.5%

0.2%

6.1%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.8%

<0.1%

5.5%

0.3%

5.4%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.7%

0.7%

3.2%

0.4%

2.6%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

8.6%

0.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

15.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

9.1%

0.1%

8.6%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com