OhioBobcats

1-1 T1st (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

69.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	@RutgersRUTG	L31-34
2	9/06	vsWest VirginiaWVU	W17-10
3	9/13	@Ohio StateOSU	Win prob:8%
4	9/20	vsGardner-WebbGWEB	Win prob:90%
5	9/27	vsBowling GreenBGSU	Win prob:77%
6	10/04	@Ball StateBALL	Win prob:92%
8	10/18	vsNorthern IllinoisNIU	Win prob:76%
9	10/25	@Eastern MichiganEMU	Win prob:86%
10	11/04	vsMiami (OH)M-OH	Win prob:74%
11	11/11	@Western MichiganWMU	Win prob:81%
12	11/18	vsMassachusettsMASS	Win prob:96%
14	11/28	@BuffaloBUF	Win prob:71%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	19.4%	100.0%
7-1	36.2%	98.1%
6-2	28.6%	51.6%
5-3	12.2%	1.9%
4-4	3.2%	0%
3-5	0.5%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

26.4%

23.2%

19.3%

18.3%

12.8%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Central MichiganCMU@MichiganMICH	70.7% (+0.8%)	69.8% (-0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@IllinoisILL	69.9% (+0.0%)	69.8% (+0.0%)
Eastern MichiganEMU@KentuckyUK	70.2% (+0.4%)	69.8% (-0.1%)
New HampshireUNH@Ball StateBALL	69.9% (+0.1%)	69.8% (-0.0%)
AkronAKR@UABUAB	69.8% (-0.1%)	69.9% (+0.0%)
LibertyLIB@Bowling GreenBGSU	70.0% (+0.2%)	69.7% (-0.2%)
Morgan StateMORG@ToledoTOL	70.4% (+0.5%)	69.8% (-0.1%)
BuffaloBUF@Kent StateKENT	69.7% (-0.1%)	70.9% (+1.0%)
OhioOHIO@Ohio StateOSU	70.0% (+0.1%)	69.8% (-0.0%)
MassachusettsMASS@IowaIOWA	71.0% (+1.1%)	69.8% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Central Michigan

Ohio

Massachusetts

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Kent State

Iowa

CCG: 71.0% • Scenario: 11.6%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.5%

Any 1 loss

99.8%

18.9%

100.0%

16.0%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.8%

0.3%

98.7%

0.5%

98.6%

0.6%

97.6%

0.5%

97.1%

0.4%

96.4%

0.1%

Any 2 losses

95.1%

34.1%

100.0%

1.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.8%

0.5%

99.5%

2.6%

99.0%

1.3%

98.7%

6.4%

98.3%

3.9%

97.6%

5.5%

97.6%

<0.1%

97.6%

<0.1%

97.5%

4.9%

96.9%

4.7%

96.7%

<0.1%

95.6%

<0.1%

88.9%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

82.6%

<0.1%

74.2%

<0.1%

69.8%

<0.1%

68.8%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

65.9%

<0.1%

65.4%

<0.1%

64.8%

0.1%

64.7%

<0.1%

61.0%

<0.1%

59.2%

0.1%

58.1%

<0.1%

55.8%

<0.1%

54.0%

0.1%

50.2%

0.2%

50.0%

<0.1%

46.2%

0.1%

45.0%

<0.1%

44.5%

0.2%

43.5%

0.2%

42.1%

<0.1%

41.5%

0.2%

35.4%

0.1%

31.9%

0.1%

Any 3 losses

56.8%

27.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.7%

0.3%

99.4%

0.2%

99.2%

0.8%

98.2%

0.6%

97.9%

0.6%

97.6%

0.4%

95.7%

0.5%

86.5%

<0.1%

83.7%

0.1%

82.8%

0.2%

80.0%

<0.1%

77.1%

0.3%

76.6%

0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

72.8%

0.5%

71.4%

<0.1%

69.9%

0.6%

67.6%

0.2%

67.3%

0.2%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.0%

0.2%

64.7%

<0.1%

64.7%

<0.1%

64.3%

<0.1%

62.5%

1.5%

60.1%

1.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

59.6%

0.4%

59.5%

0.5%

59.3%

0.2%

57.7%

0.9%

57.4%

0.4%

57.1%

<0.1%

56.2%

0.8%

55.6%

<0.1%

54.7%

1.2%

54.3%

0.8%

53.5%

1.2%

53.4%

1.0%

52.6%

<0.1%

49.0%

2.0%

45.5%

<0.1%

43.8%

<0.1%

42.9%

2.3%

42.2%

1.9%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

38.0%

1.8%

37.0%

1.4%

36.6%

1.6%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

31.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.5%

<0.1%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com