IowaHawkeyes

1-1 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsUAlbanyUALB	W34-7
2	9/06	@Iowa StateISU	L13-16
3	9/13	vsMassachusettsMASS	Win prob:97%
4	9/19	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:64%
5	9/27	vsIndianaIU	Win prob:41%
7	10/11	@WisconsinWIS	Win prob:58%
8	10/18	vsPenn StatePSU	Win prob:13%
9	10/25	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:66%
11	11/08	vsOregonORE	Win prob:33%
12	11/15	@USCUSC	Win prob:23%
13	11/22	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:87%
14	11/28	@NebraskaNEB	Win prob:65%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.1%	100.0%
8-1	0.9%	89.9%
7-2	5.3%	20.4%
6-3	16.2%	0.1%
5-4	27.4%	0%
4-5	27.6%	0%
3-6	16.1%	0%
2-7	5.5%	0%
1-8	0.9%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

48.0%

29.1%

9.2%

9.2%

4.6%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Central MichiganCMU@MichiganMICH	2.2% (+0.2%)	2.0% (-0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@Penn StatePSU	2.0% (-0.0%)	2.0% (+0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@UCLAUCLA	2.1% (+0.1%)	2.0% (-0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@NebraskaNEB	2.0% (+0.0%)	2.0% (+0.0%)
Youngstown StateYSU@Michigan StateMSU	1.9% (-0.1%)	2.0% (+0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@IllinoisILL	1.9% (-0.1%)	2.0% (+0.0%)
USCUSC@PurduePUR	2.0% (-0.0%)	2.2% (+0.2%)
Indiana StateINST@IndianaIU	2.0% (+0.0%)	2.0% (+0.0%)
MinnesotaMINN@CaliforniaCAL	2.0% (+0.0%)	2.0% (-0.0%)
WisconsinWIS@AlabamaALA	2.0% (-0.0%)	2.0% (+0.0%)
OhioOHIO@Ohio StateOSU	1.9% (-0.1%)	2.0% (+0.0%)
Norfolk StateNORF@RutgersRUTG	2.1% (+0.1%)	2.0% (-0.0%)
TowsonTOW@MarylandMD	2.0% (+0.0%)	2.0% (+0.0%)
OregonORE@NorthwesternNU	2.0% (-0.0%)	2.1% (+0.1%)
MassachusettsMASS@IowaIOWA	1.8% (-0.3%)	2.0% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

89.9%

0.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.6%

<0.1%

96.5%

<0.1%

96.4%

0.1%

91.9%

<0.1%

90.3%

0.2%

87.2%

<0.1%

84.0%

0.4%

Any 2 losses

20.6%

5.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

55.0%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.9%

<0.1%

45.2%

<0.1%

42.1%

<0.1%

40.9%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

36.4%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

34.8%

<0.1%

31.3%

0.1%

31.3%

<0.1%

30.4%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

29.7%

0.1%

27.1%

0.3%

26.9%

<0.1%

25.0%

0.2%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.8%

0.3%

21.7%

<0.1%

21.6%

0.2%

21.4%

0.1%

20.7%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.9%

0.2%

19.6%

0.4%

18.1%

0.1%

18.0%

0.5%

13.9%

0.7%

12.2%

1.2%

Any 3 losses

5.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com