MichiganWolverines

1-1 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNew MexicoUNM	W34-17
2	9/06	@OklahomaOU	L13-24
3	9/13	vsCentral MichiganCMU	Win prob:96%
4	9/20	@NebraskaNEB	Win prob:75%
6	10/04	vsWisconsinWIS	Win prob:81%
7	10/11	@USCUSC	Win prob:33%
8	10/18	vsWashingtonWASH	Win prob:78%
9	10/25	@Michigan StateMSU	Win prob:86%
10	11/01	vsPurduePUR	Win prob:96%
12	11/15	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	Win prob:89%
13	11/22	@MarylandMD	Win prob:77%
14	11/29	vsOhio StateOSU	Win prob:30%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	2.6%	100.0%
8-1	15.3%	54.7%
7-2	32.0%	4.0%
6-3	30.0%	0.0%
5-4	14.9%	0%
4-5	4.3%	0%
3-6	0.7%	0%
2-7	0.1%	0%
1-8	0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

54.3%

25.6%

8.4%

8.1%

3.7%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Central MichiganCMU@MichiganMICH	12.3% (+0.1%)	12.2% (+0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@Penn StatePSU	12.2% (-0.1%)	12.2% (+0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@UCLAUCLA	12.3% (+0.1%)	12.2% (-0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@NebraskaNEB	11.9% (-0.3%)	12.3% (+0.0%)
Youngstown StateYSU@Michigan StateMSU	12.4% (+0.1%)	12.2% (-0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@IllinoisILL	12.3% (+0.1%)	12.2% (-0.0%)
USCUSC@PurduePUR	12.1% (-0.1%)	13.8% (+1.6%)
Indiana StateINST@IndianaIU	12.4% (+0.2%)	12.2% (-0.0%)
MinnesotaMINN@CaliforniaCAL	12.4% (+0.2%)	12.0% (-0.2%)
WisconsinWIS@AlabamaALA	12.3% (+0.1%)	12.2% (-0.0%)
OhioOHIO@Ohio StateOSU	12.1% (-0.1%)	12.3% (+0.0%)
Norfolk StateNORF@RutgersRUTG	12.0% (-0.3%)	12.3% (+0.0%)
TowsonTOW@MarylandMD	11.9% (-0.3%)	12.3% (+0.0%)
OregonORE@NorthwesternNU	11.9% (-0.3%)	15.4% (+3.2%)
MassachusettsMASS@IowaIOWA	11.7% (-0.6%)	12.3% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

2.5%

Any 1 loss

54.7%

14.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

77.3%

0.7%

73.5%

0.7%

71.8%

0.1%

71.3%

0.6%

69.9%

0.3%

69.7%

0.8%

67.0%

0.4%

54.1%

5.1%

44.2%

6.0%

Any 2 losses

5.0%

31.4%

92.9%

<0.1%

90.0%

<0.1%

90.0%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

74.3%

<0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

55.5%

0.2%

47.4%

0.2%

33.3%

<0.1%

21.3%

0.1%

19.4%

<0.1%

18.9%

0.1%

18.6%

0.2%

17.4%

<0.1%

16.0%

0.1%

15.1%

0.1%

14.9%

0.3%

14.7%

<0.1%

14.6%

<0.1%

14.4%

0.2%

14.1%

<0.1%

13.3%

0.2%

13.3%

0.2%

12.2%

0.1%

11.7%

0.2%

11.1%

<0.1%

9.5%

<0.1%

5.8%

1.7%

5.7%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.1%

1.3%

5.1%

1.6%

5.1%

1.8%

4.9%

1.5%

4.8%

0.6%

4.5%

0.2%

4.5%

2.0%

3.4%

0.9%

3.4%

1.3%

3.4%

0.8%

3.3%

1.6%

3.1%

0.7%

2.5%

0.3%

1.4%

12.3%

Any 3 losses

4.1%

1.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

8.6%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

6.1%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.2%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.4%

0.5%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com