VirginiaCavaliers

2-1 T4th (0-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

4.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	W48-7
2	9/06	@NC StateNCSU	L31-35
3	9/13	vsWilliam & MaryW&M	W55-16
4	9/20	vsStanfordSTAN	Win prob:86%
5	9/26	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:67%
6	10/04	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:18%
8	10/18	vsWashington StateWSU	Win prob:53%
9	10/25	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:54%
10	11/01	@CaliforniaCAL	Win prob:36%
11	11/08	vsWake ForestWAKE	Win prob:74%
12	11/15	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:50%
14	11/29	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:60%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	0.4%	99.5%
7-2	4.4%	67.5%
6-3	15.7%	3.9%
5-4	28.1%	0%
4-5	28.4%	0%
3-6	16.6%	0%
2-7	5.5%	0%
1-8	0.9%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

39.9%

18.9%

17.1%

14.1%

9.9%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
NC StateNCSU@DukeDUKE	3.6% (-0.4%)	4.4% (+0.4%)
North CarolinaUNC@UCFUCF	4.0% (-0.0%)	4.0% (+0.0%)
CaliforniaCAL@San Diego StateSDSU	4.0% (+0.0%)	4.0% (-0.0%)
SMUSMU@TCUTCU	4.0% (+0.0%)	4.0% (-0.0%)
WoffordWOF@Virginia TechVT	3.9% (-0.1%)	4.0% (+0.0%)
SyracuseSYR@ClemsonCLEM	4.1% (+0.1%)	4.0% (-0.0%)
TempleTEM@Georgia TechGT	4.2% (+0.1%)	4.0% (-0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@LouisvilleLOU	4.1% (+0.1%)	4.0% (-0.0%)
FloridaFLA@MiamiMIA	4.1% (+0.1%)	4.0% (-0.0%)
Kent StateKENT@Florida StateFSU	4.1% (+0.1%)	4.0% (+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@VirginiaUVA	0.7% (-3.4%)	4.5% (+0.5%)

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.2%

Any 1 loss

69.1%

2.5%

99.0%

0.2%

74.1%

0.1%

73.0%

0.2%

72.1%

<0.1%

69.3%

0.3%

69.3%

0.4%

69.3%

0.2%

62.0%

1.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

17.0%

10.4%

84.2%

<0.1%

75.6%

<0.1%

72.5%

0.4%

68.8%

0.1%

68.5%

0.2%

67.7%

0.2%

67.6%

0.1%

66.1%

1.0%

10.5%

<0.1%

9.5%

<0.1%

7.8%

<0.1%

7.0%

0.1%

6.8%

<0.1%

6.8%

<0.1%

6.6%

0.2%

6.1%

0.1%

5.8%

0.2%

5.7%

0.4%

5.7%

0.1%

5.2%

0.3%

5.1%

0.4%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.7%

0.4%

4.4%

0.2%

4.4%

0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.0%

0.9%

3.8%

<0.1%

3.6%

0.2%

3.6%

<0.1%

2.9%

0.5%

2.7%

1.1%

2.7%

0.7%

2.5%

1.9%

2.1%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

4.0%

7.3%

10.6%

<0.1%

9.4%

<0.1%

8.6%

<0.1%

8.1%

<0.1%

7.9%

0.2%

7.5%

0.2%

7.3%

<0.1%

6.8%

<0.1%

5.8%

0.4%

5.8%

0.1%

4.7%

0.3%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.1%

0.1%

4.1%

0.6%

4.0%

0.4%

4.0%

0.1%

3.9%

0.1%

3.9%

0.9%

3.8%

0.2%

3.6%

0.3%

3.5%

0.3%

3.3%

0.8%

2.7%

1.7%

2.5%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com