Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:59% | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:46% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:65% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:50% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:74% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 9.8% | 99.5% |
| 7-2 | 22.3% | 77.5% |
| 6-3 | 28.4% | 17.5% |
| 5-4 | 22.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 10.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5% (-0.2%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 36.5% (+2.7%) | 32.9% (-0.9%) | |
| 34.0% (+0.2%) | 33.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 33.4% (-0.4%) | 34.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 33.6% (-0.1%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.7% (-0.1%) | 33.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 33.2% (-0.5%) | 34.5% (+0.7%) | |
| 33.3% (-0.5%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Carolina
West Virginia
TulsaTCU
Utah
East Carolina
Arizona State
WyomingCCG: 61.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
West VirginiaCCG: 36.5% • Scenario: 24.1%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.1%Any 1 loss
99.6%
6.5%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.6%
100.0%
0.7%
99.8%
1.1%99.5%
0.4%
99.4%
0.4%99.4%
1.3%
99.3%
1.1%
99.2%
0.2%
99.2%
0.5%Any 2 losses
82.8%
17.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%99.5%
0.8%99.4%
0.9%99.3%
0.7%99.2%
0.3%98.8%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%91.6%
0.2%91.6%
0.1%91.0%
<0.1%90.0%
0.1%87.8%
0.1%87.8%
0.1%86.4%
0.2%85.3%
0.1%84.6%
0.2%84.3%
0.2%84.1%
0.6%83.6%
0.3%82.5%
0.4%81.5%
<0.1%80.9%
0.3%80.8%
0.3%79.9%
0.2%79.9%
0.6%79.2%
0.2%79.2%
0.4%79.0%
0.1%77.8%
0.7%77.3%
0.4%77.2%
0.4%76.8%
0.3%76.4%
0.4%76.0%
1.1%75.3%
1.3%75.1%
0.4%73.5%
0.4%73.4%
0.4%72.0%
1.3%72.0%
0.5%71.8%
0.1%67.2%
0.5%Any 3 losses
38.8%
25.9%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
0.1%90.2%
<0.1%88.8%
0.1%88.3%
0.1%87.4%
0.2%87.3%
<0.1%85.6%
0.1%85.5%
<0.1%83.7%
0.3%83.7%
0.1%83.3%
0.4%82.0%
0.1%82.0%
0.2%82.0%
0.2%81.4%
<0.1%80.1%
0.5%80.1%
0.3%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
0.2%77.9%
0.3%77.5%
0.2%77.3%
0.3%77.2%
<0.1%77.0%
0.4%76.9%
0.3%76.4%
0.3%75.5%
<0.1%75.1%
0.7%72.9%
0.9%72.5%
0.4%72.5%
0.3%70.5%
0.3%69.6%
0.3%69.5%
0.9%50.0%
<0.1%31.7%
0.1%30.3%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%28.0%
0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.9%
0.2%25.4%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.4%
0.1%23.2%
0.1%23.2%
0.3%22.9%
0.1%22.6%
0.2%21.8%
0.1%21.5%
0.3%21.3%
0.4%21.3%
<0.1%21.1%
0.2%21.0%
0.3%20.9%
0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.3%
0.3%20.2%
0.2%20.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.1%19.7%
0.1%19.7%
0.2%19.6%
0.2%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
0.1%18.3%
0.4%18.2%
0.2%18.2%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
0.4%18.0%
0.5%17.9%
0.1%17.8%
0.1%17.7%
0.4%17.6%
0.2%17.0%
0.4%16.6%
0.2%16.6%
0.7%16.4%
0.3%16.3%
0.8%16.0%
0.2%15.7%
<0.1%15.5%
0.2%15.4%
0.6%15.3%
0.3%15.2%
1.4%15.1%
0.3%14.9%
0.2%14.8%
0.2%14.8%
0.2%14.6%
0.5%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
0.2%13.3%
0.2%13.3%
0.1%11.7%
0.5%11.6%
0.6%8.0%
0.5%7.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
16.3%
12.1%36.8%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.5%
0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.0%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%23.6%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.1%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.9%
0.2%21.4%
0.2%21.3%
0.1%20.9%
0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.2%
0.2%19.6%
0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.5%
0.3%19.4%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%19.2%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.0%
0.2%18.7%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
0.3%17.6%
0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.4%
0.3%17.2%
0.2%17.0%
0.2%16.8%
0.4%16.3%
0.2%16.1%
0.3%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
0.2%15.8%
0.1%15.3%
0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.0%
0.9%15.0%
0.1%14.9%
0.5%14.5%
0.2%14.3%
0.1%13.8%
0.4%13.8%
0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.5%
0.3%13.3%
<0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
0.4%11.3%
0.1%10.7%
0.2%10.2%
0.2%9.7%
0.3%9.7%
0.3%9.4%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
0.4%7.9%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14