UCF

UCFKnights

2-0 T3rd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

5.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

UCFSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/28
vsJacksonville StJXST
W17-10
29/06
vsNorth Carolina A&TNCAT
W68-7
49/20
vsNorth CarolinaUNC
Win prob:72%
59/27
@Kansas StKSU
Win prob:28%
610/04
vsKansasKU
Win prob:49%
710/11
@CincinnatiCIN
Win prob:49%
810/18
vsWest VirginiaWVU
Win prob:69%
1011/01
@BaylorBAY
Win prob:38%
1111/07
vsHoustonHOU
Win prob:72%
1211/15
@Texas TechTTU
Win prob:30%
1311/22
vsOklahoma StOKST
Win prob:91%
1411/29
@BYUBYU
Win prob:27%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
100.0%
8-1
1.2%
97.4%
7-2
5.8%
61.1%
6-3
16.4%
5.0%
5-4
26.8%
0%
4-5
27.2%
0%
3-6
16.1%
0%
2-7
5.4%
0%
1-8
0.9%
0%
0-9
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely UCF CCG Opponents

if UCF makes the CCG

TCUTCU
29.2%
Arizona StateArizona St
26.3%
Iowa StateIowa St
16.8%
BYUBYU
16.1%
Texas TechTexas Tech
11.6%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFThis Week's Impact

Game
UCFCCG OddsAway
UCFCCG OddsHome
North CarolinaUNC@UCFUCF
5.4%
(-0.2%)		5.7%
(+0.1%)
West VirginiaWVU@KansasKU
5.7%
(+0.1%)		5.6%
(-0.0%)
TulsaTLSA@Oklahoma StOKST
5.6%
(+0.0%)		5.6%
(-0.0%)
SMUSMU@TCUTCU
5.5%
(-0.1%)		5.7%
(+0.1%)
Texas TechTTU@UtahUTAH
5.6%
(-0.0%)		5.6%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@East CarolinaECU
5.6%
(-0.0%)		5.7%
(+0.1%)
Arizona StASU@BaylorBAY
5.1%
(-0.5%)		6.3%
(+0.7%)
WyomingWYO@ColoradoCOLO
5.5%
(-0.1%)		5.6%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for UCF

North CarolinaNorth CarolinaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaTulsaTulsaTCUTCUTexas TechTexas TechEast CarolinaEast CarolinaBaylorBaylorWyomingWyoming

CCG: 16.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for UCF

BaylorBaylor

CCG: 6.3% • Scenario: 43.0%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UCF CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
97.3%
0.9%
Houston
100.0%
<0.1%
Cincinnati
100.0%
<0.1%
North Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
West Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas St
99.4%
0.2%
Kansas
98.1%
<0.1%
BYU
97.3%
0.2%
Texas Tech
96.0%
0.1%
Baylor
92.3%
0.1%
Any 2 losses
64.5%
4.5%
HoustonNorth Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaTexas Tech
98.5%
<0.1%
BYUNorth Carolina
97.3%
<0.1%
North CarolinaWest Virginia
92.9%
<0.1%
KansasNorth Carolina
89.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiWest Virginia
83.7%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas Tech
81.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHouston
80.8%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma St
80.0%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma St
80.0%
<0.1%
BaylorWest Virginia
75.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma St
75.0%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas
73.3%
<0.1%
BaylorHouston
70.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiTexas Tech
69.1%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansas St
68.2%
0.2%
CincinnatiKansas
67.4%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnati
67.2%
0.1%
BaylorKansas
66.9%
0.1%
KansasTexas Tech
64.9%
0.2%
Kansas StWest Virginia
64.5%
<0.1%
HoustonWest Virginia
63.6%
<0.1%
BYUHouston
63.5%
<0.1%
BYUWest Virginia
63.3%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnati
63.1%
0.2%
KansasWest Virginia
62.9%
<0.1%
Texas TechWest Virginia
62.3%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas St
62.1%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas Tech
61.7%
0.3%
BaylorKansas St
61.1%
0.3%
BYUBaylor
58.6%
0.3%
Kansas StTexas Tech
58.4%
0.4%
HoustonTexas Tech
57.6%
<0.1%
BYUKansas St
57.6%
0.4%
BYUKansas
57.4%
0.2%
KansasKansas St
57.1%
0.2%
BYUTexas Tech
54.8%
0.4%
BYUOklahoma St
45.5%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
11.9%
13.4%
BaylorNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
85.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasNorth Carolina
77.8%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
72.4%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorth Carolina
71.9%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonNorth Carolina
70.0%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorth Carolina
68.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
67.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
67.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
66.7%
<0.1%
North CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
65.4%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
65.3%
<0.1%
HoustonNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
64.7%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
64.3%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiNorth Carolina
63.3%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorth Carolina
61.1%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
60.9%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonNorth Carolina
60.5%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StNorth Carolina
59.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
58.1%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorth Carolina
57.8%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
57.4%
0.2%
HoustonKansasNorth Carolina
56.3%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StNorth Carolina
56.0%
0.2%
BaylorKansas StNorth Carolina
55.9%
0.1%
BaylorKansasNorth Carolina
52.8%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
52.0%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorNorth Carolina
50.5%
0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
50.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
BYUKansasNorth Carolina
48.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StTexas Tech
25.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StOklahoma St
25.0%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiOklahoma St
25.0%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StWest Virginia
25.0%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StOklahoma St
20.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasOklahoma St
20.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StWest Virginia
20.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiTexas TechWest Virginia
18.9%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StOklahoma St
15.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonTexas Tech
13.8%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasOklahoma St
13.3%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StTexas Tech
13.0%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma StTexas Tech
12.2%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiHouston
10.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasWest Virginia
10.3%
<0.1%
BYUKansasOklahoma St
10.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechWest Virginia
10.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas St
9.9%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas TechWest Virginia
9.8%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansasTexas Tech
9.5%
0.2%
HoustonOklahoma StTexas Tech
9.1%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonKansas St
8.8%
0.2%
KansasOklahoma StTexas Tech
8.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas
8.7%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas St
8.6%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiTexas Tech
8.3%
0.3%
CincinnatiHoustonWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma StWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechWest Virginia
8.1%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StOklahoma St
8.0%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiOklahoma St
8.0%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiKansas
7.9%
0.2%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas
7.1%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiWest Virginia
7.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasWest Virginia
7.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansasKansas St
6.9%
0.2%
BYUKansas StOklahoma St
6.7%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonTexas Tech
6.5%
0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StTexas Tech
6.3%
0.4%
BYUCincinnatiWest Virginia
6.3%
0.1%
HoustonKansasKansas St
6.1%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas St
6.1%
0.3%
KansasKansas StWest Virginia
5.8%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StWest Virginia
5.7%
<0.1%
BYUKansasWest Virginia
5.6%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonTexas Tech
5.4%
0.2%
BYUBaylorCincinnati
5.1%
0.3%
HoustonKansas StTexas Tech
5.1%
0.1%
BaylorKansasWest Virginia
5.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorTexas Tech
5.0%
0.7%
BYUCincinnatiKansas St
4.8%
0.5%
BYUBaylorHouston
4.7%
0.1%
BYUBaylorKansas
4.7%
0.3%
BaylorHoustonWest Virginia
4.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StWest Virginia
4.5%
0.1%
BYUBaylorWest Virginia
4.4%
0.1%
BYUKansas StWest Virginia
4.4%
0.2%
BaylorKansasKansas St
4.3%
0.3%
BYUBaylorKansas St
4.2%
0.8%
BYUCincinnatiTexas Tech
4.1%
0.4%
BaylorKansasTexas Tech
4.0%
0.3%
BYUKansasTexas Tech
4.0%
0.4%
BYUKansasKansas St
3.8%
0.5%
KansasKansas StTexas Tech
3.7%
0.4%
Kansas StTexas TechWest Virginia
3.7%
0.2%
BaylorKansas StTexas Tech
3.6%
0.6%
BYUBaylorOklahoma St
3.6%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasTexas Tech
3.0%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StTexas Tech
2.8%
1.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StTexas Tech
2.8%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonKansas
2.5%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas
2.3%
<0.1%
BYUTexas TechWest Virginia
2.0%
0.2%
Any 4 losses
4.7%
4.1%
HoustonKansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
50.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma StWest Virginia
33.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
25.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorth CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
25.0%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
20.0%
<0.1%
KansasNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
18.8%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiNorth CarolinaOklahoma St
16.7%
<0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
15.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansasNorth Carolina
12.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas StNorth Carolina
11.5%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansasNorth Carolina
11.1%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiHoustonNorth Carolina
11.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasKansas StNorth Carolina
10.7%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiHoustonNorth Carolina
10.0%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
8.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
7.7%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorKansasNorth Carolina
7.3%
0.1%
BaylorNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
7.1%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas StNorth Carolina
6.8%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorHoustonNorth Carolina
6.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaOklahoma StTexas Tech
6.7%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
6.5%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
6.3%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas StNorth Carolina
6.2%
0.1%
BYUHoustonNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
6.1%
<0.1%
BYUNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
6.1%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
6.1%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
5.9%
0.2%
CincinnatiKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
5.5%
0.1%
KansasKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
5.1%
0.2%
BYUKansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
5.0%
0.2%
CincinnatiKansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
4.9%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiKansas StNorth Carolina
4.7%
0.2%
BYUHoustonKansasNorth Carolina
4.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
4.0%
0.1%
BYUBaylorKansas StNorth Carolina
3.7%
0.3%
BYUBaylorNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
3.7%
0.3%
BYUCincinnatiKansasNorth Carolina
3.6%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
3.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasKansas StNorth Carolina
3.5%
0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
3.4%
0.3%
CincinnatiKansasKansas StNorth Carolina
3.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth CarolinaTexas TechWest Virginia
2.9%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
2.9%
0.4%
BYUKansasNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
2.6%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
2.6%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorCincinnatiNorth Carolina
2.0%
0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansasNorth Carolina
1.9%
<0.1%
BYUKansasKansas StNorth Carolina
1.4%
0.2%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com