Duke

DukeBlue Devils

1-2 T4th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

DukeSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/28
vsElonELON
W45-17
29/06
vsIllinoisILL
L19-45
39/13
@TulaneTULN
L27-34
49/20
vsNC StateNCSU
Win prob:51%
59/27
@SyracuseSYR
Win prob:39%
610/04
@CaliforniaCAL
Win prob:29%
810/18
vsGeorgia TechGT
Win prob:44%
1011/01
@ClemsonCLEM
Win prob:16%
1111/08
@UConnCONN
Win prob:44%
1211/15
vsVirginiaUVA
Win prob:50%
1311/22
@North CarolinaUNC
Win prob:46%
1411/29
vsWake ForestWAKE
Win prob:67%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.1%
100.0%
7-1
0.9%
87.3%
6-2
5.0%
28.5%
5-3
14.8%
0.4%
4-4
26.4%
0%
3-5
27.9%
0%
2-6
17.8%
0%
1-7
6.2%
0%
0-8
0.9%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Duke CCG Opponents

if Duke makes the CCG

MiamiMiami FL
39.9%
LouisvilleLouisville
21.3%
SMUSMU
19.7%
ClemsonClemson
10.6%
NC StateNC State
8.5%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeThis Week's Impact

Game
DukeCCG OddsAway
DukeCCG OddsHome
NC StateNCSU@DukeDUKE
0.5%
(-1.8%)		4.0%
(+1.7%)
North CarolinaUNC@UCFUCF
2.2%
(-0.1%)		2.4%
(+0.1%)
CaliforniaCAL@San Diego StSDSU
2.3%
(+0.0%)		2.3%
(-0.1%)
SMUSMU@TCUTCU
2.2%
(-0.1%)		2.4%
(+0.1%)
WoffordWOF@Virginia TechVT
2.5%
(+0.2%)		2.3%
(-0.0%)
SyracuseSYR@ClemsonCLEM
2.5%
(+0.1%)		2.3%
(-0.0%)
TempleTEM@Georgia TechGT
2.2%
(-0.1%)		2.3%
(+0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@LouisvilleLOU
2.4%
(+0.1%)		2.3%
(-0.0%)
FloridaFLA@Miami FLMIA
2.3%
(-0.0%)		2.3%
(+0.0%)
KentKENT@Florida StFSU
2.2%
(-0.1%)		2.3%
(+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@VirginiaUVA
2.1%
(-0.2%)		2.3%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Duke CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
86.4%
0.4%
Wake Forest
100.0%
<0.1%
UConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Virginia
95.7%
<0.1%
North Carolina
91.9%
<0.1%
California
85.3%
<0.1%
Georgia Tech
85.2%
<0.1%
Clemson
82.2%
0.1%
NC State
81.8%
<0.1%
Syracuse
81.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
39.1%
2.7%
UConnVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaUConn
97.6%
<0.1%
UConnWake Forest
92.3%
<0.1%
CaliforniaUConn
90.1%
<0.1%
SyracuseUConn
86.4%
<0.1%
Georgia TechUConn
86.1%
<0.1%
NC StateUConn
85.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonUConn
85.3%
0.2%
VirginiaWake Forest
50.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechVirginia
48.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNorth Carolina
48.3%
<0.1%
CaliforniaWake Forest
45.5%
<0.1%
NC StateVirginia
42.1%
<0.1%
ClemsonWake Forest
40.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaVirginia
39.3%
<0.1%
SyracuseWake Forest
39.1%
<0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia
39.1%
<0.1%
North CarolinaWake Forest
37.5%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNC State
35.7%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNorth Carolina
34.4%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSyracuse
34.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaSyracuse
31.5%
0.1%
NC StateNorth Carolina
30.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonVirginia
30.1%
0.1%
SyracuseVirginia
30.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNorth Carolina
29.7%
0.2%
Georgia TechWake Forest
27.8%
<0.1%
ClemsonGeorgia Tech
26.3%
0.2%
NC StateSyracuse
24.5%
<0.1%
CaliforniaClemson
24.1%
0.4%
CaliforniaGeorgia Tech
21.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC State
19.9%
0.1%
Georgia TechNC State
19.4%
<0.1%
ClemsonSyracuse
17.9%
0.3%
NC StateWake Forest
16.7%
<0.1%
Georgia TechSyracuse
16.7%
<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com