Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:41% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:83% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:95% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:43% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:81% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:69% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:54% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 15.3% | 96.0% |
| 6-2 | 29.0% | 38.2% |
| 5-3 | 29.1% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 16.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 27.8% (-1.3%) | 30.3% (+1.2%) | |
| 29.2% (+0.1%) | 29.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 29.2% (+0.1%) | 28.7% (-0.4%) | |
| 29.1% (-0.0%) | 29.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 29.2% (+0.0%) | 29.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 30.5% (+1.3%) | 28.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 28.4% (-0.7%) | 29.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 28.8% (-0.3%) | 29.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 29.3% (+0.2%) | 29.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 29.4% (+0.3%) | 29.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 30.2% (+1.1%) | 28.9% (-0.2%) |
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.3%Any 1 loss
96.9%
8.1%
100.0%
1.9%
99.0%
0.3%
98.4%
<0.1%
98.4%
0.6%
97.8%
0.8%
96.2%
0.3%
95.3%
1.8%
95.3%
1.1%
94.1%
1.3%Any 2 losses
63.4%
20.8%99.1%
0.1%98.3%
0.5%98.3%
1.3%97.5%
0.9%96.3%
1.6%96.0%
2.6%95.9%
0.4%92.6%
1.8%91.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%58.4%
0.1%58.4%
<0.1%56.6%
0.4%55.7%
0.2%55.0%
0.1%53.8%
0.4%53.3%
<0.1%52.8%
0.2%50.6%
<0.1%49.8%
0.3%48.1%
0.8%46.7%
<0.1%45.0%
0.3%45.0%
0.5%44.8%
0.5%42.8%
1.1%42.3%
0.4%38.0%
<0.1%37.5%
0.3%35.3%
0.8%35.1%
0.2%34.5%
0.7%28.0%
1.5%27.2%
1.7%25.7%
1.1%Any 3 losses
30.3%
21.9%75.9%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.3%61.3%
0.2%59.4%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%55.2%
0.2%54.4%
<0.1%53.9%
0.5%52.1%
0.1%51.7%
0.6%47.5%
1.2%46.6%
0.4%46.1%
0.2%43.9%
0.4%43.7%
0.8%43.4%
1.6%40.8%
0.7%39.8%
0.3%37.9%
0.5%37.7%
1.1%36.8%
1.0%35.5%
0.4%27.4%
2.1%26.7%
2.4%22.9%
1.5%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.4%1.4%
0.3%1.3%
0.5%1.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14