Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-14

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

T1NC StateNCSU2-03-019.4%
T1Georgia TechGT1-03-020.3%
T1StanfordSTAN1-01-2<0.1%
T4Miami FLMIA0-03-051.3%
T4LouisvilleLOU0-02-032.4%
T4SMUSMU0-02-129.1%
T4ClemsonCLEM0-11-216.4%
T4CaliforniaCAL0-03-09.8%
T4PittsburghPITT0-02-15.4%
T4VirginiaUVA0-12-14.0%
T4Virginia TechVT0-00-33.4%
T4DukeDUKE0-01-22.3%
T4Florida StFSU0-02-01.9%
T4North CarolinaUNC0-02-11.9%
T4SyracuseSYR0-02-11.5%
T4Boston CollegeBC0-11-20.6%
T4Wake ForestWAKE0-12-10.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

111.5%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
210.0%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
37.4%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
46.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
NCSUNC State
55.7%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
MIAMiami FL
65.2%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
SMUSMU
73.9%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
NCSUNC State
83.8%
Georgia TechGT
vs
LOULouisville
93.6%
NC StateNCSU
vs
SMUSMU
103.5%
CaliforniaCAL
vs
MIAMiami FL
113.4%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
122.6%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
LOULouisville
132.2%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
SMUSMU
141.9%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
GTGeorgia Tech
151.7%
Miami FLMIA
vs
PITTPittsburgh

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 51.3%
Game
Miami FLCCG OddsAway
Miami FLCCG OddsHome
NC StateNCSU@DukeDUKE
50.1%
(-1.1%)		52.3%
(+1.1%)
North CarolinaUNC@UCFUCF
51.1%
(-0.1%)		51.3%
(+0.0%)
CaliforniaCAL@San Diego StSDSU
51.2%
(-0.0%)		51.4%
(+0.1%)
SMUSMU@TCUTCU
51.1%
(-0.2%)		51.4%
(+0.1%)
WoffordWOF@Virginia TechVT
51.4%
(+0.1%)		51.2%
(-0.0%)
SyracuseSYR@ClemsonCLEM
55.4%
(+4.2%)		50.4%
(-0.9%)
TempleTEM@Georgia TechGT
51.8%
(+0.6%)		51.2%
(-0.1%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@LouisvilleLOU
51.6%
(+0.4%)		51.2%
(-0.1%)
FloridaFLA@Miami FLMIA
51.5%
(+0.3%)		51.1%
(-0.1%)
KentKENT@Florida StFSU
50.4%
(-0.9%)		51.3%
(+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@VirginiaUVA
53.4%
(+2.2%)		50.9%
(-0.4%)

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Miami FLMIA-100%-96.5%-43.6%-1.1%51.3%
LouisvilleLOU-100%-97.3%-50.7%-2.3%32.4%
SMUSMU-100%-96.0%-38.2%-0.6%29.1%
Georgia TechGT-100%-87.8%-28.9%-0.3%20.3%
NC StateNCSU100%-99.9%-78.6%-6.9%-19.4%
ClemsonCLEM---96.0%-39.2%-0.8%16.4%
CaliforniaCAL-100%-89.5%-26.9%-0.2%9.8%
PittsburghPITT-100%-95.3%-37.5%-0.5%5.4%
VirginiaUVA--99.5%-67.5%-3.9%-4.0%
Virginia TechVT-100%-97.6%-49.6%-1.2%3.4%
DukeDUKE-100%-87.3%-28.5%-0.4%2.3%
Florida StFSU-100%-91.7%-30.4%-0.3%1.9%
North CarolinaUNC-98.9%-83.9%-19.9%-0.1%1.9%
SyracuseSYR-100%-93.1%-41.3%-1.3%1.5%
Boston CollegeBC---98.7%-49.8%-0.7%0.6%
Wake ForestWAKE---96.7%-37.0%-0.6%0.2%
StanfordSTAN---80.0%-36.2%-0.6%<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-71-80-80-9Avg Wins
Miami FLMIA(0-0)-9.4%0.0%28.1%0.0%33.2%0.0%20.3%0.0%7.3%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-6.1
NC StateNCSU(2-0)0.4%0.0%4.5%0.0%16.0%0.0%29.1%0.0%28.8%0.0%16.1%0.0%4.7%0.0%0.5%----5.5
SMUSMU(0-0)-3.2%0.0%15.3%0.0%29.0%0.0%29.1%0.0%16.7%0.0%5.6%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.4
LouisvilleLOU(0-0)-3.0%0.0%14.7%0.0%28.5%0.0%29.1%0.0%17.1%0.0%6.2%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%<0.1%-5.3
Georgia TechGT(1-0)-2.3%0.0%12.1%0.0%25.4%0.0%29.6%0.0%20.5%0.0%8.2%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.2%---5.1
ClemsonCLEM(0-1)---6.8%0.0%24.5%0.0%34.4%0.0%23.4%0.0%8.8%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.2%0.0%<0.1%-4.9
CaliforniaCAL(0-0)-0.6%0.0%5.1%0.0%17.0%0.0%28.5%0.0%27.4%0.0%15.5%0.0%5.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%-4.5
VirginiaUVA(0-1)--0.4%0.0%4.4%0.0%15.7%0.0%28.1%0.0%28.4%0.0%16.6%0.0%5.5%0.0%0.9%0.0%<0.1%4.4
PittsburghPITT(0-0)-0.2%0.0%1.9%0.0%8.7%0.0%20.6%0.0%28.9%0.0%24.3%0.0%11.9%0.0%3.2%0.0%0.3%-3.9
North CarolinaUNC(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%5.3%0.0%15.4%0.0%26.9%0.0%28.1%0.0%17.2%0.0%5.6%0.0%0.6%-3.5
DukeDUKE(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%5.0%0.0%14.8%0.0%26.4%0.0%27.9%0.0%17.8%0.0%6.2%0.0%0.9%-3.4
Virginia TechVT(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%4.7%0.0%14.3%0.0%25.7%0.0%28.6%0.0%18.4%0.0%6.5%0.0%0.9%-3.4
Florida StFSU(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.6%0.0%4.0%0.0%14.1%0.0%26.3%0.0%29.6%0.0%18.5%0.0%6.0%0.0%0.8%-3.4
SyracuseSYR(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.5%0.0%10.8%0.0%24.5%0.0%30.8%0.0%21.8%0.0%8.1%0.0%1.2%-3.1
Boston CollegeBC(0-1)---<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.0%0.0%17.3%0.0%29.3%0.0%28.4%0.0%14.8%0.0%3.1%-2.7
Wake ForestWAKE(0-1)---<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.2%0.0%11.6%0.0%25.3%0.0%32.0%0.0%21.3%0.0%6.0%-2.3
StanfordSTAN(1-0)-0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.4%0.0%7.8%0.0%24.6%0.0%40.0%0.0%26.1%---2.2

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com