Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L10-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L21-24 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:82% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:57% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:84% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:38% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 6.8% | 96.0% |
| 6-2 | 24.5% | 39.2% |
| 5-3 | 34.4% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.7% (-1.8%) | 18.1% (+1.7%) | |
| 16.4% (-0.0%) | 16.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.4% (+0.0%) | 16.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 16.7% (+0.3%) | 16.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 16.6% (+0.1%) | 16.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.9% (-12.5%) | 19.1% (+2.7%) | |
| 16.5% (+0.1%) | 16.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.4% (+0.0%) | 16.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.2% (-0.2%) | 16.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.0% (+1.6%) | 16.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 16.8% (+0.4%) | 16.4% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.5%
2.3%Any 1 loss
57.7%
12.5%
97.0%
0.3%
95.7%
3.8%
56.1%
0.7%
52.9%
0.4%
52.8%
1.1%
46.6%
0.4%
45.1%
0.4%
32.3%
1.7%
31.8%
3.6%Any 2 losses
26.9%
23.1%94.9%
0.4%60.9%
<0.1%54.7%
1.1%54.1%
0.6%53.6%
0.7%52.2%
1.6%51.7%
<0.1%48.7%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.7%
0.8%43.8%
0.1%33.3%
2.7%32.9%
0.2%32.1%
0.4%32.0%
6.1%3.5%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
0.5%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%0.9%
0.4%0.8%
1.7%0.7%
0.7%0.7%
1.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.7%0.5%
0.8%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14