FloridaGators

1-2 T5th (0-1) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsLong Island UniversityLIU	W55-0
2	9/06	vsSouth FloridaUSF	L16-18
3	9/13	@LSULSU	L10-20
4	9/20	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:31%
6	10/04	vsTexasTEX	Win prob:27%
7	10/11	@Texas A&MTA&M	Win prob:35%
8	10/18	vsMississippi StateMSST	Win prob:84%
10	11/01	vsGeorgiaUGA(N)	Win prob:9%
11	11/08	@KentuckyUK	Win prob:63%
12	11/15	@Ole MissMISS	Win prob:14%
13	11/22	vsTennesseeTENN	Win prob:38%
14	11/29	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:83%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	0.0%	100.0%
6-2	0.6%	38.8%
5-3	4.6%	0.4%
4-4	17.6%	0%
3-5	33.0%	0%
2-6	30.9%	0%
1-7	12.0%	0%
0-8	1.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

64.0%

12.0%

12.0%

8.0%

4.0%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
South CarolinaSC@MissouriMIZ	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
AuburnAUB@OklahomaOU	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@Mississippi StateMSST	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@LSULSU	0.3% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
UABUAB@TennesseeTENN	0.4% (+0.1%)	0.3% (-0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Ole MissMISS	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
Sam HoustonSHSU@TexasTEX	0.5% (+0.2%)	0.3% (-0.0%)
ArkansasARK@MemphisMEM	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
FloridaFLA@MiamiMIA	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
Georgia StateGAST@VanderbiltVAN	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

South Carolina

Auburn

Northern Illinois

SE Louisiana

Tulane

Memphis

Florida

Georgia State

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Memphis

Miami

CCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 34.7%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

42.2%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

36.0%

<0.1%

35.3%

<0.1%

32.4%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

20.9%

0.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

56.0%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

47.8%

<0.1%

37.7%

0.1%

37.0%

<0.1%

34.8%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com