Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-19 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-63 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:34% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:88% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:19% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:56% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 1.0% | 58.9% |
| 7-2 | 8.2% | 2.5% |
| 6-3 | 24.0% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 32.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 23.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.8%) | 2.2% (+1.5%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon
IowaIllinois
Washington
UCLA
RutgersCCG: 6.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisCCG: 2.2% • Scenario: 34.0%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
58.9%
1.0%Any 1 loss
2.5%
8.2%5.8%
0.8%
5.4%
0.2%
5.1%
0.7%4.9%
0.4%
4.7%
0.1%
3.0%
0.1%
1.5%
4.1%
1.5%
1.9%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21