Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:42% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:54% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:51% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:73% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 11.0% | 98.7% |
| 7-2 | 24.1% | 68.0% |
| 6-3 | 28.8% | 11.3% |
| 5-4 | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 9.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.8% (-0.8%) | 33.5% (+0.8%) | |
| 34.6% (+1.9%) | 31.9% (-0.7%) | |
| 50.8% (+18.2%) | 19.4% (-13.2%) | |
| 32.7% (+0.1%) | 32.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 32.9% (+0.3%) | 32.0% (-0.6%) | |
| 32.5% (-0.1%) | 32.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.8% (-0.8%) | 33.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 31.9% (-0.8%) | 34.3% (+1.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BYU
CincinnatiTCU
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Arizona
UCF
West VirginiaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 50.8% • Scenario: 42.1%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.2%Any 1 loss
98.7%
11.0%100.0%
0.5%
99.7%
0.6%
99.5%
0.8%
99.5%
0.8%99.2%
0.7%
99.0%
1.8%
98.7%
0.8%98.6%
2.0%
97.5%
3.0%Any 2 losses
67.9%
24.1%88.7%
0.3%87.0%
0.2%86.7%
0.3%84.3%
0.2%83.7%
0.3%83.1%
0.1%82.3%
0.3%82.0%
0.6%81.4%
0.2%81.1%
0.3%81.0%
0.4%80.0%
0.1%77.0%
0.7%76.8%
0.8%76.4%
0.3%76.3%
0.7%75.6%
0.4%75.3%
0.3%74.5%
0.3%74.2%
0.2%74.2%
0.6%73.8%
0.8%73.7%
0.6%73.3%
0.1%69.4%
1.8%69.3%
1.1%69.0%
0.7%67.6%
0.7%66.2%
0.9%65.1%
0.5%64.7%
0.8%63.3%
1.1%61.8%
1.0%58.9%
2.5%55.0%
2.9%49.9%
1.1%Any 3 losses
11.2%
28.8%33.3%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%19.5%
0.1%18.9%
0.1%18.5%
0.2%17.8%
0.1%17.7%
0.2%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
0.2%17.0%
0.3%16.7%
0.1%16.6%
0.3%16.4%
0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
0.2%15.6%
0.2%15.6%
0.2%15.4%
0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.9%
0.2%14.7%
0.2%14.7%
<0.1%14.1%
0.1%13.9%
0.2%13.7%
0.3%13.5%
0.3%13.5%
<0.1%13.4%
0.3%13.3%
0.7%13.1%
0.2%13.1%
0.3%13.0%
0.1%12.7%
0.3%12.4%
0.2%12.3%
0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.3%
0.2%12.2%
0.2%12.2%
0.4%11.8%
0.6%11.8%
0.6%11.7%
0.9%11.5%
0.3%11.2%
0.5%11.2%
0.9%11.2%
1.0%11.1%
0.2%11.1%
0.3%10.9%
0.3%10.7%
0.9%10.3%
0.4%10.3%
0.4%10.1%
0.6%10.1%
0.7%10.0%
1.1%10.0%
0.5%9.8%
0.4%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.2%9.2%
0.2%9.2%
2.4%9.2%
0.8%9.2%
0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.8%
1.0%8.7%
0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.4%
0.9%8.2%
1.1%8.1%
0.4%8.0%
0.2%7.7%
0.4%6.7%
0.4%6.2%
0.4%6.1%
1.0%4.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
1.1%
0.4%2.5%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21