Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:86% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:54% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:45% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.6% | 94.3% |
| 7-2 | 5.0% | 51.2% |
| 6-3 | 16.2% | 3.6% |
| 5-4 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4% (-0.2%) | 3.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.4%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.1%) | 3.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.4%) | 0.9% (-2.7%) | |
| 3.6% (-0.1%) | 3.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.2% (+0.5%) | 3.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.0%) | 3.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.7% (+0.0%) | 3.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Cincinnati
TCU
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Iowa State
UCF
West VirginiaCCG: 12.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorCCG: 4.1% • Scenario: 86.4%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
94.3%
0.6%Any 1 loss
51.2%
5.0%63.3%
0.1%
60.5%
0.4%57.1%
0.5%
54.8%
0.3%
51.8%
0.7%50.0%
0.3%
49.9%
0.7%47.1%
2.0%Any 2 losses
3.6%
16.2%12.6%
0.1%10.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.3%6.7%
0.3%6.5%
0.3%6.2%
0.2%6.0%
0.1%5.3%
0.4%5.3%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.8%5.0%
0.3%4.7%
1.4%4.6%
0.5%4.5%
0.3%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
0.2%3.5%
1.7%3.0%
0.6%2.9%
1.2%2.5%
0.6%2.4%
0.5%2.3%
2.0%2.2%
2.5%1.6%
0.4%1.5%
0.7%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21