Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W59-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W69-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:22% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:87% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:93% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:72% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 5.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 27.6% | 87.7% |
| 7-2 | 36.6% | 15.7% |
| 6-3 | 22.1% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 67.4% (+32.2%) | 26.3% (-8.8%) | |
| 34.7% (-0.5%) | 36.2% (+1.1%) | |
| 34.8% (-0.4%) | 36.0% (+0.8%) | |
| 34.1% (-1.0%) | 42.8% (+7.6%) | |
| 34.6% (-0.6%) | 35.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 35.1% (-0.1%) | 35.3% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon
Iowa
USC
Washington
UCLA
RutgersCCG: 83.8% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonCCG: 67.4% • Scenario: 21.5%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.2%Any 1 loss
87.7%
27.6%98.9%
1.6%
98.0%
0.4%
93.3%
2.4%91.1%
0.8%89.4%
2.1%
88.1%
0.4%87.9%
0.8%
85.4%
19.1%Any 2 losses
15.6%
36.6%45.2%
0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.7%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.2%
<0.1%38.2%
0.3%36.4%
0.3%36.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.8%
0.1%28.1%
0.4%28.0%
0.1%27.1%
0.2%25.6%
0.3%24.7%
0.4%24.7%
0.4%23.4%
0.2%21.4%
0.2%20.1%
2.8%20.1%
1.4%19.3%
3.0%19.0%
0.8%18.6%
0.7%17.8%
6.0%16.2%
1.5%12.5%
0.9%10.7%
8.8%9.6%
7.7%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21