MichiganWolverines

3-1 T1st (1-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

19.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNew MexicoUNM	W34-17
2	9/06	@OklahomaOU	L13-24
3	9/13	vsCentral MichiganCMU	W63-3
4	9/20	@NebraskaNEB	W30-27
6	10/04	vsWisconsinWIS	Win prob:86%
7	10/11	@USCUSC	Win prob:39%
8	10/18	vsWashingtonWASH	Win prob:85%
9	10/25	@Michigan StateMSU	Win prob:90%
10	11/01	vsPurduePUR	Win prob:97%
12	11/15	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	Win prob:93%
13	11/22	@MarylandMD	Win prob:82%
14	11/29	vsOhio StateOSU	Win prob:36%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	6.7%	100.0%
8-1	28.0%	43.6%
7-2	38.5%	1.5%
6-3	20.6%	0.0%
5-4	5.4%	0%
4-5	0.8%	0%
3-6	0.1%	0%
2-7	0.0%	0%
1-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

56.6%

16.1%

15.1%

6.4%

5.8%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
OregonORE@Penn StatePSU	20.3% (+0.8%)	19.2% (-0.2%)
IndianaIU@IowaIOWA	18.8% (-0.7%)	20.9% (+1.4%)
USCUSC@IllinoisILL	19.3% (-0.2%)	19.8% (+0.3%)
Ohio StateOSU@WashingtonWASH	18.9% (-0.6%)	23.8% (+4.3%)
UCLAUCLA@NorthwesternNU	18.7% (-0.7%)	19.8% (+0.3%)
RutgersRUTG@MinnesotaMINN	19.4% (-0.1%)	19.5% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Penn State

Iowa

Illinois

Washington

UCLA

Rutgers

CCG: 31.0% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Washington

CCG: 23.8% • Scenario: 12.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

6.7%

Any 1 loss

43.6%

28.0%

62.6%

0.5%

60.9%

1.4%

60.6%

1.2%

58.5%

0.2%

58.2%

1.1%

54.8%

0.8%

46.1%

10.6%

34.7%

12.2%

Any 2 losses

2.6%

18.9%

11.6%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

9.7%

0.1%

8.9%

<0.1%

8.1%

0.2%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

0.2%

6.3%

0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

4.4%

0.2%

4.0%

0.2%

3.1%

2.2%

2.9%

0.8%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.8%

1.9%

2.4%

0.1%

2.2%

1.7%

2.2%

2.5%

2.0%

1.2%

2.0%

2.1%

1.8%

1.3%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.8%

1.0%

1.7%

2.0%

1.7%

0.4%

1.3%

0.4%

1.9%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com