Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W33-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:66% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:61% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:14% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:28% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 5.3% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 24.6% | 44.4% |
| 7-2 | 36.0% | 1.6% |
| 6-3 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 8.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 19.1% (+2.2%) | 16.3% (-0.6%) | |
| 15.7% (-1.2%) | 19.4% (+2.5%) | |
| 22.8% (+5.9%) | 5.3% (-11.6%) | |
| 16.3% (-0.6%) | 21.3% (+4.4%) | |
| 16.0% (-0.9%) | 17.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 16.7% (-0.2%) | 17.0% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon
IowaUSC
Washington
Northwestern
MinnesotaCCG: 40.4% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 22.8% • Scenario: 66.0%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.8%Any 1 loss
76.0%
8.0%
99.9%
4.6%58.4%
0.2%
57.6%
0.4%
56.4%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%
47.6%
<0.1%38.3%
1.9%
34.1%
0.5%Any 2 losses
38.5%
24.8%60.7%
2.5%60.4%
1.4%59.6%
0.2%54.2%
2.5%53.7%
0.1%38.6%
11.6%36.6%
2.9%10.5%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%2.7%
0.2%2.0%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.9%1.3%
0.6%1.2%
0.9%Any 3 losses
1.6%
31.1%10.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%4.9%
0.7%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.7%4.2%
1.3%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
0.1%2.5%
1.5%2.3%
1.4%2.1%
0.1%1.5%
0.9%1.3%
6.0%1.3%
6.1%1.3%
3.5%1.1%
0.6%0.8%
0.4%0.5%
7.3%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21