Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W70-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W59-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:12% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:54% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:15% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:44% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 59.8% |
| 7-2 | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 6-3 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 24.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 21.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 8.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+1.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon
Indiana
USCWashington
UCLA
MinnesotaCCG: 3.9% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 12.1%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
60.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
91.7%
<0.1%
90.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
62.3%
<0.1%
60.0%
<0.1%
52.8%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
2.8%
2.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.7%
0.4%2.0%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.2%
0.4%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.5%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21