Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-21

Big TenConference Standings

T1USCUSC2-04-016.9%
T1OregonORE1-04-035.2%
T1MichiganMICH1-03-119.4%
T1IndianaIU1-04-013.0%
T1IowaIOWA1-03-11.3%
T1MarylandMD1-04-00.1%
T7Penn StPSU0-03-073.2%
T7Ohio StOSU0-03-039.0%
T7IllinoisILL0-13-10.8%
T7NebraskaNEB0-13-10.6%
T7WashingtonWASH0-03-00.2%
T7MinnesotaMINN0-02-10.1%
T7RutgersRUTG0-13-1<0.1%
T7WisconsinWIS0-12-2<0.1%
T7Michigan StMSU0-13-1-
T7NorthwesternNU0-11-2-
T7PurduePUR0-12-2-
T7UCLAUCLA0-00-3-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

123.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
221.7%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
310.9%
MichiganMICH
vs
PSUPenn St
49.2%
Penn StPSU
vs
USCUSC
56.7%
IndianaIU
vs
PSUPenn St
66.6%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
73.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
USCUSC
83.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St
92.9%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
102.6%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
112.2%
OregonORE
vs
USCUSC
121.4%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
131.2%
MichiganMICH
vs
USCUSC
141.1%
IndianaIU
vs
MICHMichigan
151.0%
IndianaIU
vs
USCUSC

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 73.2%
Game
Penn StCCG OddsAway
Penn StCCG OddsHome
OregonORE@Penn StPSU
41.5%
(-31.7%)		81.9%
(+8.7%)
IndianaIU@IowaIOWA
72.8%
(-0.4%)		74.1%
(+0.9%)
USCUSC@IllinoisILL
72.1%
(-1.1%)		75.4%
(+2.2%)
Ohio StOSU@WashingtonWASH
73.0%
(-0.2%)		74.9%
(+1.7%)
UCLAUCLA@NorthwesternNU
73.4%
(+0.1%)		73.1%
(-0.1%)
RutgersRUTG@MinnesotaMINN
74.1%
(+0.9%)		72.6%
(-0.7%)

Best Winner Combination for Penn St

Penn StPenn StateIowaIowaIllinoisIllinoisWashingtonWashingtonNorthwesternNorthwesternRutgersRutgers

CCG: 89.5% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Penn St

Penn StPenn State

CCG: 81.9% • Scenario: 78.5%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-3Overall
Penn StPSU100%90.4%12.9%-73.2%
Ohio StOSU99.9%65.1%4.9%-39.0%
OregonORE100%87.7%15.7%<0.1%35.2%
MichiganMICH100%43.6%1.5%<0.1%19.4%
USCUSC99.9%44.4%1.6%-16.9%
IndianaIU99.7%52.1%2.1%-13.0%
IowaIOWA100%89.6%16.1%<0.1%1.3%
IllinoisILL-58.9%2.5%-0.8%
NebraskaNEB-83.1%5.2%<0.1%0.6%
WashingtonWASH100%59.8%2.5%-0.2%
MarylandMD100%41.4%1.5%-0.1%
MinnesotaMINN85.7%40.6%0.8%-0.1%
RutgersRUTG--17.9%-<0.1%
WisconsinWIS--63.6%0.4%<0.1%
Michigan StMSU-----
NorthwesternNU-----
PurduePUR-----
UCLAUCLA-----

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
Penn StPSU(0-0)32.1%42.6%20.0%4.6%0.6%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%8.0
Ohio StOSU(0-0)13.0%37.5%33.2%13.2%2.8%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%7.4
MichiganMICH(1-0)6.7%28.0%38.5%20.6%5.4%0.8%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-7.1
OregonORE(1-0)5.2%27.6%36.6%22.1%7.1%1.3%0.1%<0.1%0.0%-7.0
USCUSC(2-0)5.3%24.6%36.0%24.6%8.1%1.2%<0.1%0.0%--6.9
IndianaIU(1-0)2.2%19.1%42.6%28.1%7.1%0.8%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-6.8
IllinoisILL(0-1)-1.0%8.2%24.0%32.8%23.1%8.8%1.8%0.2%<0.1%5.0
NebraskaNEB(0-1)-0.3%6.4%23.3%34.4%24.4%9.2%1.8%0.2%<0.1%4.9
IowaIOWA(1-0)<0.1%0.6%4.6%16.4%30.4%29.9%14.7%3.2%0.2%-4.6
MinnesotaMINN(0-0)<0.1%0.3%3.2%13.9%28.7%30.2%17.5%5.4%0.8%<0.1%4.4
WashingtonWASH(0-0)<0.1%0.3%2.4%10.4%24.5%30.9%21.6%8.3%1.4%<0.1%4.1
MarylandMD(1-0)<0.1%0.3%1.9%8.8%21.9%31.4%24.6%9.7%1.4%-4.0
RutgersRUTG(0-1)-0.0%<0.1%0.8%5.8%19.3%33.7%28.4%10.6%1.4%2.8
WisconsinWIS(0-1)-0.0%<0.1%0.3%2.3%10.4%25.3%33.6%22.1%6.0%2.2
NorthwesternNU(0-1)-0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.7%5.5%22.9%41.3%24.9%4.7%2.0
Michigan StMSU(0-1)-0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.3%2.6%13.4%34.4%37.8%11.6%1.6
UCLAUCLA(0-0)0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.2%2.2%10.8%28.5%38.1%20.3%1.4
PurduePUR(0-1)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.7%4.6%19.4%41.0%34.3%1.0

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com