Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W47-7 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | W38-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:33% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:61% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:10% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:23% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:44% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.6% | 89.6% |
| 7-2 | 4.6% | 16.1% |
| 6-3 | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 30.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.9%) | 3.3% (+2.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
OregonIowa
Illinois
Washington
Northwestern
RutgersCCG: 11.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaCCG: 3.3% • Scenario: 32.5%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
89.6%
0.6%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
95.5%
<0.1%
91.5%
0.1%
89.4%
<0.1%88.7%
0.1%
86.0%
0.3%Any 2 losses
16.1%
4.6%34.8%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.3%
0.2%28.8%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.5%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%22.1%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.2%19.2%
0.4%17.4%
<0.1%16.6%
0.2%16.2%
<0.1%15.6%
0.2%13.4%
0.9%11.9%
0.6%11.3%
0.3%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.9%Any 3 losses
0.9%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21