Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-21
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Arizona StateASU | 1-0 | 3-1 | 45.4% | |
| T1 |  Texas TechTTU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 36.8% | |
| T1 |  Iowa StateISU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 17.1% | |
| T1 |  KansasKU | 1-0 | 3-1 | 17.0% | |
| T1 |  HoustonHOU | 1-0 | 3-0 | 4.1% | |
| T6 |  TCUTCU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 32.6% | |
| T6 |  BYUBYU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 18.1% | |
| T6 |  UtahUTAH | 0-1 | 3-1 | 9.0% | |
| T6 |  Kansas StateKSU | 0-1 | 1-3 | 6.4% | |
| T6 |  UCFUCF | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4.2% | |
| T6 |  BaylorBAY | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3.7% | |
| T6 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2.5% | |
| T6 |  CincinnatiCIN | 0-0 | 2-1 | 1.9% | |
| T6 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-0 | 3-0 | 1.0% | |
| T6 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0.3% | |
| T6 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-0 | 1-2 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 45.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 43.4% (-1.9%) | 47.3% (+2.0%) | |
| 46.3% (+0.9%) | 45.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 26.3% (-19.0%) | 59.2% (+13.8%) | |
| 45.4% (+0.1%) | 44.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 45.4% (+0.0%) | 45.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 47.6% (+2.3%) | 44.6% (-0.7%) | |
| 45.7% (+0.4%) | 45.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 45.0% (-0.4%) | 46.2% (+0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
ColoradoCincinnatiArizona StateOklahoma State
Oregon StateArizonaUCFWest VirginiaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Arizona StateCCG: 59.2% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 99.2% | 74.1% | 13.3% | <0.1% | 45.4% |
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 98.6% | 66.2% | 7.7% | - | 36.8% |
| TCUTCU | 100% | 98.7% | 68.0% | 11.3% | <0.1% | 32.6% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 98.1% | 66.4% | 8.5% | <0.1% | 18.1% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 98.6% | 69.0% | 7.5% | - | 17.1% |
| KansasKU | 100% | 95.1% | 52.5% | 3.6% | - | 17.0% |
| UtahUTAH | - | 99.1% | 71.0% | 11.9% | <0.1% | 9.0% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | 98.9% | 69.7% | 9.2% | - | 6.4% |
| UCFUCF | 100% | 95.2% | 52.7% | 3.5% | - | 4.2% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 98.5% | 61.6% | 4.5% | - | 4.1% |
| BaylorBAY | - | 94.3% | 51.2% | 3.6% | - | 3.7% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | 99.4% | 76.6% | 11.5% | <0.1% | 2.5% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 96.6% | 59.2% | 5.0% | - | 1.9% |
| ArizonaARIZ | 100% | 97.4% | 61.2% | 6.2% | - | 1.0% |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | 100% | 80.8% | 22.8% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | - | 11.1% | - | - |
Data from 2025-09-21
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona StateASU(1-0) | 3.8% | 16.4% | 29.0% | 28.3% | 15.8% | 5.5% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.4 |
| Texas TechTTU(1-0) | 2.7% | 13.6% | 27.8% | 29.7% | 18.1% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.3 |
| TCUTCU(0-0) | 2.2% | 11.0% | 24.1% | 28.8% | 20.7% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 6.0 |
| KansasKU(1-0) | 0.8% | 6.0% | 17.9% | 28.5% | 26.8% | 14.8% | 4.5% | 0.7% | <0.1% | - | 5.6 |
| Iowa StateISU(1-0) | 0.5% | 4.4% | 14.9% | 27.2% | 28.2% | 17.6% | 6.0% | 1.1% | <0.1% | - | 5.4 |
| BYUBYU(0-0) | 0.8% | 5.1% | 15.2% | 25.4% | 26.4% | 17.3% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.3 |
| UtahUTAH(0-1) | - | 1.2% | 7.7% | 19.9% | 28.2% | 24.6% | 13.2% | 4.3% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Kansas StateKSU(0-1) | - | 0.8% | 5.8% | 17.1% | 27.8% | 26.8% | 15.7% | 5.1% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| BaylorBAY(0-1) | - | 0.6% | 5.0% | 16.2% | 27.9% | 27.3% | 16.4% | 5.6% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| HoustonHOU(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 27.5% | 29.3% | 17.9% | 5.3% | 0.6% | - | 4.4 |
| UCFUCF(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 14.8% | 26.0% | 27.9% | 17.4% | 6.5% | 1.2% | <0.1% | 4.4 |
| CincinnatiCIN(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 8.3% | 19.4% | 28.2% | 25.0% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 3.8 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-1) | - | 0.2% | 1.8% | 8.0% | 19.6% | 28.5% | 25.1% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 3.8 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 13.7% | 25.4% | 28.7% | 19.4% | 6.4% | 0.6% | 3.4 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 12.9% | 25.4% | 30.4% | 20.4% | 5.8% | 2.4 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 6.7% | 21.5% | 39.4% | 30.9% | 1.1 |
Data from 2025-09-21