UtahUtes

3-1 T6th (0-1) in B12

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

9.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@UCLAUCLA	W43-10
2	9/06	vsCal PolyCP	W63-9
3	9/13	@WyomingWYO	W31-6
4	9/20	vsTexas TechTTU	L10-34
5	9/27	@West VirginiaWVU	Win prob:68%
7	10/11	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:50%
8	10/18	@BYUBYU	Win prob:42%
9	10/25	vsColoradoCOLO	Win prob:66%
10	11/01	vsCincinnatiCIN	Win prob:79%
12	11/15	@BaylorBAY	Win prob:55%
13	11/22	vsKansas StateKSU	Win prob:62%
14	11/28	@KansasKU	Win prob:50%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	1.2%	99.1%
7-2	7.7%	71.0%
6-3	19.9%	11.9%
5-4	28.2%	0.0%
4-5	24.6%	0%
3-6	13.2%	0%
2-7	4.3%	0%
1-8	0.8%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

31.8%

29.4%

19.0%

10.5%

9.3%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BYUBYU@ColoradoCOLO	8.6% (-0.4%)	9.4% (+0.4%)
CincinnatiCIN@KansasKU	9.5% (+0.5%)	8.9% (-0.2%)
TCUTCU@Arizona StateASU	8.9% (-0.1%)	9.2% (+0.1%)
BaylorBAY@Oklahoma StateOKST	9.1% (+0.1%)	8.7% (-0.3%)
HoustonHOU@Oregon StateORST	9.0% (-0.1%)	9.2% (+0.2%)
ArizonaARIZ@Iowa StateISU	9.4% (+0.3%)	8.9% (-0.1%)
UCFUCF@Kansas StateKSU	8.7% (-0.4%)	9.2% (+0.2%)
UtahUTAH@West VirginiaWVU	11.9% (+2.8%)	2.9% (-6.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Colorado

Kansas

TCU

Oklahoma State

Houston

Arizona

UCF

Utah

CCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Utah

CCG: 11.9% • Scenario: 68.2%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.1%

1.2%

Any 1 loss

71.0%

7.7%

79.8%

0.4%

79.0%

1.0%

78.4%

0.6%

78.3%

0.6%

75.7%

0.8%

69.3%

1.7%

68.6%

1.3%

57.6%

1.3%

Any 2 losses

11.9%

19.9%

18.8%

0.5%

17.8%

0.3%

17.8%

0.5%

17.0%

0.3%

16.7%

0.2%

15.7%

0.2%

14.5%

0.4%

14.5%

0.2%

13.9%

1.1%

13.8%

0.6%

13.8%

1.5%

13.7%

0.9%

13.6%

0.6%

13.5%

0.7%

12.9%

0.5%

12.4%

0.3%

12.4%

0.6%

12.3%

0.8%

12.3%

0.8%

11.5%

0.6%

11.5%

0.4%

11.4%

1.1%

10.5%

1.7%

10.2%

0.4%

9.8%

1.1%

7.8%

0.8%

7.5%

1.8%

6.9%

1.2%

Any 3 losses

0.8%

0.4%

1.3%

<0.1%

0.7%

0.3%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com