Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:51% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:80% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:58% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:50% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:39% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 5.1% | 98.1% |
| 7-2 | 15.2% | 66.4% |
| 6-3 | 25.4% | 8.5% |
| 5-4 | 26.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 17.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.9% (+7.8%) | 9.9% (-8.1%) | |
| 19.4% (+1.3%) | 17.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 19.1% (+1.1%) | 17.3% (-0.8%) | |
| 18.0% (-0.0%) | 18.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 18.1% (+0.1%) | 17.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.0% (+1.0%) | 17.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 18.7% (+0.7%) | 17.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 17.8% (-0.2%) | 18.6% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BYU
Cincinnati
TCU
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Arizona
UCF
West VirginiaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 25.9% • Scenario: 51.0%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.8%Any 1 loss
98.1%
5.2%100.0%
0.3%99.7%
0.4%
99.7%
0.7%99.4%
0.2%
99.2%
0.7%99.2%
0.4%
98.8%
0.6%96.8%
0.8%
95.7%
1.2%Any 2 losses
66.4%
15.2%91.9%
<0.1%90.4%
0.2%89.1%
0.4%87.6%
0.2%86.4%
0.3%85.4%
0.2%85.4%
0.3%84.9%
0.1%83.9%
0.3%81.5%
0.1%81.3%
<0.1%79.0%
0.2%78.3%
0.2%78.0%
0.5%77.4%
0.4%77.0%
0.3%76.5%
0.1%76.0%
0.4%76.0%
0.7%72.0%
0.3%71.2%
0.2%71.1%
0.3%70.3%
0.8%69.7%
0.4%68.8%
0.7%67.8%
0.2%66.3%
0.5%63.1%
1.1%61.8%
0.3%60.2%
0.4%59.9%
0.5%56.5%
0.5%55.0%
0.8%53.8%
0.8%48.9%
1.1%42.1%
1.2%Any 3 losses
8.5%
25.4%25.0%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.9%
0.2%20.3%
0.1%18.9%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
0.1%17.1%
0.2%16.8%
0.1%16.6%
0.2%16.5%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
0.2%15.5%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.6%
0.2%14.3%
0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.5%
0.2%12.8%
0.4%12.8%
0.3%12.7%
<0.1%12.7%
0.1%12.7%
0.3%12.6%
0.1%12.4%
0.3%12.3%
0.3%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.7%
0.4%11.6%
0.1%11.2%
0.4%11.1%
0.2%10.9%
0.3%10.8%
0.1%10.4%
0.3%10.3%
0.3%10.2%
<0.1%9.9%
0.3%9.8%
0.5%9.7%
0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.5%
0.2%9.4%
0.2%9.2%
0.6%9.1%
0.2%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
0.8%8.7%
0.3%8.6%
0.4%8.6%
0.5%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
0.2%8.4%
0.3%8.1%
0.3%7.9%
0.6%7.8%
0.6%7.7%
0.3%7.5%
0.3%7.5%
0.5%7.5%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
0.4%6.8%
0.3%6.7%
0.4%6.6%
0.5%6.4%
0.2%6.2%
1.2%6.2%
0.4%6.1%
0.5%5.7%
1.1%5.7%
0.5%5.7%
0.6%5.6%
0.9%5.5%
0.8%5.1%
0.3%4.7%
0.6%4.3%
0.2%3.9%
0.9%3.8%
1.2%3.4%
0.3%Any 4 losses
0.7%
0.5%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21