CincinnatiBearcats

2-1 T6th (0-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsNebraskaNEB(N)	L17-20
2	9/06	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W34-20
3	9/13	vsNorthwestern StateNWST	W70-0
5	9/27	@KansasKU	Win prob:27%
6	10/04	vsIowa StateISU	Win prob:42%
7	10/11	vsUCFUCF	Win prob:50%
8	10/18	@Oklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:80%
9	10/25	vsBaylorBAY	Win prob:46%
10	11/01	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:22%
12	11/15	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:62%
13	11/22	vsBYUBYU	Win prob:34%
14	11/29	@TCUTCU	Win prob:16%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.0%	100.0%
8-1	0.3%	96.6%
7-2	2.1%	59.2%
6-3	8.3%	5.0%
5-4	19.4%	0%
4-5	28.2%	0%
3-6	25.0%	0%
2-7	12.9%	0%
1-8	3.5%	0%
0-9	0.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

34.2%

26.3%

21.1%

9.9%

8.6%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BYUBYU@ColoradoCOLO	1.9% (+0.0%)	1.9% (-0.0%)
CincinnatiCIN@KansasKU	4.8% (+2.9%)	0.8% (-1.1%)
TCUTCU@Arizona StateASU	2.1% (+0.2%)	1.8% (-0.1%)
BaylorBAY@Oklahoma StateOKST	1.9% (-0.0%)	2.1% (+0.2%)
HoustonHOU@Oregon StateORST	1.8% (-0.0%)	2.0% (+0.1%)
ArizonaARIZ@Iowa StateISU	2.1% (+0.2%)	1.8% (-0.1%)
UCFUCF@Kansas StateKSU	1.9% (-0.0%)	1.9% (+0.0%)
UtahUTAH@West VirginiaWVU	1.9% (-0.0%)	1.9% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

BYU

Cincinnati

Arizona State

Oklahoma State

Oregon State

Arizona

UCF

West Virginia

CCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Cincinnati

CCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 27.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

96.8%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

96.3%

<0.1%

96.3%

<0.1%

94.1%

<0.1%

93.7%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

59.0%

2.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

76.5%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

73.5%

<0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

68.3%

<0.1%

67.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

65.6%

<0.1%

65.0%

<0.1%

65.0%

<0.1%

64.3%

0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

63.4%

<0.1%

62.2%

<0.1%

60.6%

<0.1%

59.4%

0.1%

59.0%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

57.7%

<0.1%

57.0%

0.1%

55.7%

0.2%

55.4%

<0.1%

54.1%

0.3%

53.7%

<0.1%

53.5%

<0.1%

52.3%

<0.1%

50.7%

<0.1%

46.5%

0.2%

33.3%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

5.1%

8.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

15.0%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.9%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.6%

<0.1%

10.6%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.9%

0.1%

9.5%

<0.1%

9.4%

<0.1%

8.9%

<0.1%

8.5%

0.2%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.0%

<0.1%

8.0%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.2%

<0.1%

7.0%

0.3%

6.9%

0.1%

6.7%

0.2%

6.6%

0.1%

6.6%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

6.2%

0.2%

6.2%

0.2%

6.1%

<0.1%

5.8%

<0.1%

5.8%

0.2%

5.7%

0.1%

5.6%

0.2%

5.6%

0.2%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.5%

0.3%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.1%

<0.1%

5.0%

0.2%

5.0%

0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.6%

0.2%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.2%

0.3%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

4.0%

0.1%

3.9%

0.3%

3.8%

0.9%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.4%

<0.1%

3.2%

0.1%

3.1%

0.2%

3.1%

0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

3.0%

0.4%

3.0%

0.4%

2.5%

0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.6%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com