KansasJayhawks

3-1 T1st (1-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

17.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsFresno StateFRES	W31-7
1	8/29	vsWagnerWAG	W46-7
2	9/06	@MissouriMIZ	L31-42
4	9/20	vsWest VirginiaWVU	W41-10
5	9/27	vsCincinnatiCIN	Win prob:73%
6	10/04	@UCFUCF	Win prob:51%
7	10/11	@Texas TechTTU	Win prob:32%
9	10/25	vsKansas StateKSU	Win prob:54%
10	11/01	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:94%
11	11/08	@ArizonaARIZ	Win prob:63%
13	11/22	@Iowa StateISU	Win prob:43%
14	11/28	vsUtahUTAH	Win prob:50%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.8%	100.0%
8-1	6.0%	95.1%
7-2	17.9%	52.5%
6-3	28.5%	3.6%
5-4	26.8%	0%
4-5	14.8%	0%
3-6	4.5%	0%
2-7	0.7%	0%
1-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

34.9%

22.6%

22.4%

11.2%

8.9%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BYUBYU@ColoradoCOLO	16.4% (-0.5%)	17.5% (+0.6%)
CincinnatiCIN@KansasKU	6.9% (-10.1%)	20.7% (+3.8%)
TCUTCU@Arizona StateASU	17.2% (+0.3%)	16.8% (-0.2%)
BaylorBAY@Oklahoma StateOKST	16.9% (-0.0%)	17.2% (+0.3%)
HoustonHOU@Oregon StateORST	16.8% (-0.2%)	17.3% (+0.4%)
ArizonaARIZ@Iowa StateISU	17.9% (+1.0%)	16.6% (-0.3%)
UCFUCF@Kansas StateKSU	17.2% (+0.2%)	16.9% (-0.1%)
UtahUTAH@West VirginiaWVU	16.7% (-0.3%)	17.6% (+0.6%)

Best Winner Combination for

BYU

Kansas

TCU

Oklahoma State

Oregon State

Arizona

UCF

West Virginia

CCG: 35.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Kansas

CCG: 20.7% • Scenario: 72.9%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.8%

Any 1 loss

95.1%

6.0%

98.3%

<0.1%

98.0%

0.8%

97.8%

0.7%

97.5%

0.3%

97.2%

0.8%

97.1%

0.5%

94.7%

1.0%

91.0%

1.8%

Any 2 losses

52.5%

17.9%

81.8%

<0.1%

78.4%

<0.1%

72.9%

0.4%

72.3%

0.3%

72.0%

<0.1%

70.3%

0.4%

70.2%

<0.1%

69.5%

0.2%

69.5%

0.2%

68.7%

0.7%

68.5%

<0.1%

67.3%

0.8%

66.1%

0.3%

65.7%

<0.1%

63.2%

0.5%

62.3%

0.7%

61.0%

0.1%

58.7%

1.1%

54.3%

0.9%

53.2%

0.6%

52.9%

0.4%

51.7%

1.6%

48.9%

1.1%

47.9%

1.1%

47.8%

0.7%

44.7%

1.5%

41.9%

1.7%

33.4%

2.2%

Any 3 losses

3.6%

28.5%

27.8%

<0.1%

17.1%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.6%

0.2%

12.1%

<0.1%

11.4%

<0.1%

10.9%

0.1%

8.6%

0.2%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.3%

0.2%

8.2%

<0.1%

7.9%

0.5%

7.8%

0.4%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.0%

0.4%

7.0%

0.2%

6.9%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

6.3%

0.2%

6.3%

0.3%

5.9%

0.4%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.7%

0.6%

5.7%

0.1%

5.7%

0.4%

5.5%

1.0%

5.4%

0.7%

5.1%

<0.1%

5.0%

0.3%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.3%

0.4%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.2%

0.6%

3.9%

0.2%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.7%

1.0%

3.6%

1.0%

3.5%

0.5%

3.4%

1.4%

3.4%

0.7%

3.3%

0.9%

3.0%

0.7%

2.9%

1.6%

2.9%

0.5%

2.8%

1.3%

2.8%

0.9%

2.4%

2.1%

2.4%

0.9%

1.9%

0.4%

1.8%

2.3%

1.5%

2.0%

1.3%

0.8%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com