UCFKnights

3-0 T6th (0-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

4.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsJacksonville StateJXST	W17-10
2	9/06	vsNorth Carolina A&TNCAT	W68-7
4	9/20	vsNorth CarolinaUNC	W34-9
5	9/27	@Kansas StateKSU	Win prob:30%
6	10/04	vsKansasKU	Win prob:49%
7	10/11	@CincinnatiCIN	Win prob:50%
8	10/18	vsWest VirginiaWVU	Win prob:67%
10	11/01	@BaylorBAY	Win prob:38%
11	11/07	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:65%
12	11/15	@Texas TechTTU	Win prob:25%
13	11/22	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:91%
14	11/29	@BYUBYU	Win prob:27%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.1%	100.0%
8-1	1.0%	95.2%
7-2	5.1%	52.7%
6-3	14.8%	3.5%
5-4	26.0%	0%
4-5	27.9%	0%
3-6	17.4%	0%
2-7	6.5%	0%
1-8	1.2%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

36.7%

22.2%

21.3%

10.4%

9.5%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BYUBYU@ColoradoCOLO	4.0% (-0.1%)	4.3% (+0.1%)
CincinnatiCIN@KansasKU	4.5% (+0.3%)	4.1% (-0.1%)
TCUTCU@Arizona StateASU	4.3% (+0.2%)	4.1% (-0.1%)
BaylorBAY@Oklahoma StateOKST	4.2% (-0.0%)	4.4% (+0.2%)
HoustonHOU@Oregon StateORST	4.2% (+0.0%)	4.2% (-0.0%)
ArizonaARIZ@Iowa StateISU	4.8% (+0.6%)	4.0% (-0.2%)
UCFUCF@Kansas StateKSU	9.2% (+5.0%)	2.0% (-2.2%)
UtahUTAH@West VirginiaWVU	4.0% (-0.2%)	4.6% (+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for

BYU

Kansas

TCU

Oklahoma State

Oregon State

Arizona

UCF

West Virginia

CCG: 28.6% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UCF

CCG: 9.2% • Scenario: 30.3%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

95.3%

1.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.7%

<0.1%

97.0%

0.2%

96.8%

0.1%

96.3%

0.2%

91.0%

0.2%

89.2%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

52.6%

5.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

90.9%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

72.5%

<0.1%

70.3%

0.1%

68.8%

<0.1%

67.5%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

64.7%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

61.6%

<0.1%

61.1%

0.1%

59.0%

0.3%

58.8%

0.1%

57.9%

0.1%

57.3%

0.1%

57.0%

<0.1%

56.6%

<0.1%

56.3%

0.1%

55.9%

0.5%

55.5%

0.3%

55.1%

<0.1%

54.3%

0.2%

53.3%

<0.1%

52.9%

0.2%

52.6%

<0.1%

52.2%

0.2%

51.3%

0.4%

48.7%

0.2%

48.4%

<0.1%

48.1%

0.1%

44.3%

0.3%

43.1%

0.5%

40.0%

0.6%

Any 3 losses

3.5%

14.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

18.4%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.1%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.6%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.0%

0.2%

7.9%

<0.1%

7.4%

0.3%

6.9%

0.1%

6.9%

0.2%

6.8%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

6.2%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.7%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.5%

0.4%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.4%

0.2%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.3%

0.1%

5.1%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.7%

0.2%

4.7%

0.1%

4.7%

0.3%

4.6%

0.2%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.4%

0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.9%

0.3%

3.9%

1.0%

3.6%

0.1%

3.5%

0.3%

3.5%

0.5%

3.4%

0.4%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.3%

0.2%

3.2%

0.2%

3.2%

<0.1%

3.1%

0.8%

3.1%

0.5%

3.0%

0.3%

3.0%

<0.1%

3.0%

0.4%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.9%

0.7%

2.9%

0.6%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.8%

0.1%

2.4%

0.3%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.3%

2.1%

0.3%

2.1%

0.2%

2.1%

0.1%

1.7%

0.1%

1.6%

0.6%

1.5%

0.3%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.2%

1.4%

0.9%

0.6%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com