Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-19 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-63 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W34-32 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:75% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:10% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:57% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 53.3% |
| 7-2 | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| 6-3 | 15.4% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 30.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northwestern
Ohio StateIllinois
UCLA
Wisconsin
Nebraska
MarylandCCG: 2.9% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisNebraskaCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 65.6%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
53.3%
0.2%Any 1 loss
2.1%
3.4%7.6%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%
4.2%
<0.1%
3.1%
0.2%
3.0%
0.6%2.9%
0.3%1.3%
2.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28