Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W70-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W59-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L6-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:57% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:70% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:21% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 69.2% |
| 7-2 | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| 6-3 | 20.5% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 32.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 11.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.2%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.3%) | 0.1% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Illinois
UCLA
Michigan StateCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 56.9%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
69.2%
0.5%Any 1 loss
1.9%
5.4%
5.9%
0.4%4.4%
<0.1%
3.6%
0.3%3.4%
0.2%
2.3%
0.2%
1.7%
1.8%
0.8%
2.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28