Big Ten Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-28
Conference Standings
| T1 |  OregonORE | 2-0 | 5-0 | 62.4% | |
| T1 |  IndianaIU | 2-0 | 5-0 | 32.3% | |
| T1 |  Ohio StateOSU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 43.0% | |
| T1 |  MichiganMICH | 1-0 | 3-1 | 19.4% | |
| T1 |  MarylandMD | 1-0 | 4-0 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  MinnesotaMINN | 1-0 | 3-1 | 0.3% | |
| 7 |  USCUSC | 2-1 | 4-1 | 4.0% | |
| T8 |  IowaIOWA | 1-1 | 3-2 | 0.4% | |
| T8 |  IllinoisILL | 1-1 | 4-1 | 0.2% | |
| T8 |  NorthwesternNU | 1-1 | 2-2 | - | |
| T11 |  Penn StatePSU | 0-1 | 3-1 | 37.0% | |
| T11 |  WashingtonWASH | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0.4% | |
| T11 |  NebraskaNEB | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0.3% | |
| T11 |  Michigan StateMSU | 0-1 | 3-1 | - | |
| T11 |  PurduePUR | 0-1 | 2-2 | - | |
| T11 |  RutgersRUTG | 0-2 | 3-2 | - | |
| T11 |  UCLAUCLA | 0-1 | 0-4 | - | |
| T11 |  WisconsinWIS | 0-1 | 2-2 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 62.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.1% (-0.3%) | 62.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 69.8% (+7.4%) | 61.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 62.4% (+0.0%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 62.3% (-0.0%) | 63.8% (+1.4%) | |
| 65.1% (+2.7%) | 62.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 62.3% (-0.1%) | 62.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 62.7% (+0.4%) | 61.9% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL MonroeMinnesotaPurdueUCLACCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MinnesotaCCG: 69.8% • Scenario: 6.2%
Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OregonORE | 100% | 89.4% | 20.6% | <0.1% | 62.4% |
| Ohio StateOSU | 100% | 56.8% | 2.5% | - | 43.0% |
| Penn StatePSU | - | 92.8% | 7.8% | - | 37.0% |
| IndianaIU | 100% | 58.3% | 1.6% | - | 32.3% |
| MichiganMICH | 100% | 48.6% | 1.8% | - | 19.4% |
| USCUSC | - | 51.2% | 1.2% | - | 4.0% |
| WashingtonWASH | - | 69.2% | 1.8% | - | 0.4% |
| IowaIOWA | - | 96.5% | 13.3% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| MarylandMD | 95.8% | 39.4% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| MinnesotaMINN | 100% | 47.6% | 0.7% | - | 0.3% |
| NebraskaNEB | - | 66.7% | 2.5% | - | 0.3% |
| IllinoisILL | - | 53.3% | 2.1% | - | 0.2% |
| Michigan StateMSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| NorthwesternNU | - | - | - | - | - |
| PurduePUR | - | - | - | - | - |
| RutgersRUTG | - | - | - | - | - |
| UCLAUCLA | - | - | - | - | - |
| WisconsinWIS | - | - | 100% | - | - |
Data from 2025-09-28
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU(1-0) | 17.3% | 43.9% | 30.1% | 7.6% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.7 |
| OregonORE(2-0) | 21.1% | 39.7% | 27.6% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | 7.7 |
| IndianaIU(2-0) | 8.5% | 39.6% | 42.8% | 8.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | - | 7.5 |
| Penn StatePSU(0-1) | - | 36.2% | 43.4% | 17.2% | 2.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1 |
| MichiganMICH(1-0) | 6.0% | 26.0% | 37.9% | 22.4% | 6.6% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.0 |
| USCUSC(2-1) | - | 7.0% | 31.2% | 38.7% | 19.0% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | - | - | 6.2 |
| MinnesotaMINN(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 5.5% | 21.6% | 35.0% | 26.5% | 9.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | - | 4.8 |
| NebraskaNEB(0-1) | - | 0.2% | 5.1% | 20.7% | 33.5% | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| WashingtonWASH(0-1) | - | 0.5% | 5.4% | 20.5% | 32.5% | 26.6% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| IllinoisILL(1-1) | - | 0.2% | 3.4% | 15.4% | 30.4% | 30.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 0.4% | - | 4.5 |
| MarylandMD(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 14.9% | 27.7% | 29.3% | 17.2% | 5.2% | 0.6% | - | 4.4 |
| IowaIOWA(1-1) | - | 0.1% | 2.2% | 12.4% | 30.8% | 34.0% | 16.6% | 3.5% | 0.2% | - | 4.4 |
| NorthwesternNU(1-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.4% | 9.9% | 32.2% | 42.8% | 13.6% | - | 2.4 |
| RutgersRUTG(0-2) | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.5% | 10.7% | 29.9% | 36.5% | 18.3% | 2.9% | 2.3 |
| WisconsinWIS(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.0% | 6.4% | 20.2% | 34.8% | 28.4% | 9.1% | 1.9 |
| Michigan StateMSU(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 12.4% | 33.6% | 39.4% | 11.9% | 1.5 |
| PurduePUR(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 23.3% | 40.7% | 28.5% | 1.1 |
| UCLAUCLA(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.9% | 19.0% | 42.1% | 34.6% | 0.9 |
Data from 2025-09-28